Written by Steven Hansen
The last three day’s coronavirus deaths were at the lowest average since 02 April 2020. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include several discussions on coronavirus drugs which may or may not work; Boeing is laying off more than 6,000 employees; and several headlines on what steps other countries are doing as they reopen.
Current graphic from the COVID Tracking Project on testing:
In our graphics section near the end of this post, a graphic from the Health Care Cost Institute has been added. This is an interactive graphic that one can drill down to state level to view “count of deaths per day” and “% difference in 2020 deaths”.
One more thought for today, there were many posts discussing increased coronavirus cases in several states. A good post on this subject was from National Geographic.
Stay safe – and please wear masks and social distance. Do not give the government another reason to lockdown.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
DESPITE THE HYPE, GILEAD’S REMDESIVIR WILL DO NOTHING TO END THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC – The Intercept
GILEAD SCIENCES’ REMDESIVIR has been heralded as our best hope in fighting the coronavirus pandemic. Unfortunately, the antiviral drug doesn’t seem of much help to patients with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. And while the company’s clever rollout has generated excitement among investors, politicians, and the public, a combination of generic drugs that appears to be more effective in fighting the coronavirus has flown under the radar.
Desperation for the limited supply of remdesivir is so great that Virginia will hold a lottery to determine which of the almost 1,500 severely ill patients in the state will be able to get its several hundred donated doses of the drug. In Minnesota, state officials have come up with an action plan to allocate their supply of the Covid-19 treatment, which calls for designating “triage officers” who will randomly choose among equally eligible patients. And in Alabama, physicians on a coronavirus task force set up by the governor will determine which patients get remdesivir.
… “Remdesivir doesn’t work at all, as far as I can tell, or has only a minor effect,” said William Haseltine, a scientist who has spent decades studying viruses and helped lead the U.S. government response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “It is comparable to Tamiflu and maybe not even as good,” Haseltine added, referring to another antiviral drug that has been available by prescription for 20 years and is expected to be sold over the counter in the coming months.
France revokes decree authorising use of hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19 – France24
The French government on Wednesday revoked a decree authorising hospitals to prescribe the controversial drug for Covid-19 patients after France’s public health watchdog warned against its use to treat the disease.
The government’s decision comes two days after the World Health Organization (WHO) said safety concerns had prompted it to suspend use of the drug in a global trial.
Last week, a study published in British medical journal The Lancet found patients randomised to get hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) had increased mortality rates and higher frequency of irregular heartbeats.
President of El Salvador says he is taking hydroxychloroquine – The Hill
President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele told reporters Tuesday that he is taking hydroxychloroquine, the drug touted by President Trump, in an attempt to ward off COVID-19.
Bukele said El Salvador is no longer recommending use of the drug as a treatment, but that he is personally taking it as a prophylactic, according to Reuters.
“I use it as a prophylaxis, President Trump uses it as a prophylaxis, most of the world’s leaders use it as a prophylaxis,” said Bukele.
Daily deaths in US now more than 10% higher than in previous years – CNN
The number of people dying each day in the United States since early April has been consistently more than 10% higher than in previous years, according to a new report from the Health Care Cost Institute in Washington.
The institute connects this rise in daily deaths to the coronavirus pandemic.
The Health Care Cost Institute, an independent nonprofit research organization, based its report on data from obituaries for all deaths due to any cause, not just Covid-19.
U.K. Government to launch test and trace programme tomorrow – The Telegraph
The new NHS coronavirus test and trace programme will launch across England from tomorrow, the Government has announced.
The programme is designed to let people know if they have been in close contact with someone who later reports positive for Covid-19 and could be a key to easing up social distancing measures.
Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said: “As we move to the next stage of our fight against coronavirus, we will be able to replace national lockdowns with individual isolation and, if necessary, local action where there are outbreaks.
“NHS Test and Trace will be vital to stopping the spread of the virus. It is how we will be able to protect our friends and family from infection, and protect our NHS.
Germany, Vietnam, and New Zealand have reopened schools. Here’s what the US can learn. – VOX
In Germany, students administer coronavirus tests on themselves to track if they have the disease or not. In Vietnam, children and adults get their temperatures checked before entering the school building and wear masks once inside. And in New Zealand, parents or students worried about returning too soon can delay returning until they feel comfortable.
These and other policies aim to help resume schooling safely and end the months of disruptions that experts say hurt students and caused excess stress for teachers worldwide. Some experts consider school restarts worth the risk, since young people aren’t as vulnerable to the disease as older people, though the data on whether or not kids can spread the virus much remains inconclusive.
There’s no one-size-fits-all solution, and not every idea has worked perfectly. But if there’s one silver lining from the United States reopening schools later than other countries due to its large coronavirus outbreak, it’s that it now has time to learn from their attempts.
EU announces financial ‘firepower’ of 1.85 trillion with 750 billion for COVID recovery – Euronews
The EU Commission is proposing a 750 billion euro recovery fund, the Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni tweeted. The money would be divided up into 500 billion euros given to EU countries as grants, the remaining 250 billion euros would be available as loans.
One of the first EU leaders to react is Italy’s Guiseppe Conte who said it was an ‘excellent signal from Brussels’.
… Last week, the German Chancellor and French President set out their proposal for a 500 billion euros recovery fund, something which has caused controversy with the ‘frugal four’ (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands). The issue of how much the funding will be linked to grants or loans remains a sticking point.
Boeing is laying off more than 6,000 employees this week as coronavirus pandemic hurts demand – CNBC
Boeing is planning to lay off more than 6,000 employees this week in an effort to slash costs as the coronavirus pandemic continues to devastate the air travel and aerospace industries.
The aircraft manufacturer previously said it is seeking to reduce its head count by 10% through voluntary and involuntary separations from the company. Boeing said in its 2019 annual report that it had more than 160,000 employees.
“Following the reduction-in-force announcement we made last month, we have concluded our voluntary layoff (VLO) program,” CEO Dave Calhoun said in a note to employees. “And now we have come to the unfortunate moment of having to start involuntary layoffs (ILO). We’re notifying the first 6,770 of our U.S. team members this week that they will be affected.”
Thousands of other employees will be laid off over the next few months and 5,520 other Boeing employees have been approved for voluntary separations, Boeing said.
China’s top virus warrior ‘shocked’ by US coronavirus death toll – South China Morning Post
Zhong said his counterparts in the US told him that the American system was ill-prepared for the epidemic, despite the country’s high level of medical care, equipment and facilities.
He said this was similar to the early response in Wuhan – the central Chinese city where the outbreak was first identified – when many medical personnel were infected and died
But the main problem in the US was the failure to listen to medical experts, he said. As a result, US President Donald Trump “underestimated the disease’s infectious power as well as its harmful nature. He thought it was a big flu.”
Reopening of economy stabilizes consumer confidence but concern remains about income – The Conference Board
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® shows that consumer sentiment in the United States stabilized in May following sharp declines in March and April. The Index now stands at 86.6 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. Part of the Index is based on the consumer outlook for business conditions, the labor market, and income over the next six months. The slight improvement in overall confidence was exclusively due to improved consumer sentiment about business conditions in their local area. Sentiment about job prospects stabilized in May, but a majority of consumers surveyed still expect job prospects to improve. However, a majority of consumers expect their income prospects to decline rather than improve. The last time we saw such pessimism regarding income was during the Great Recession. In sum, consumer spending is not likely to propel economic recovery in the months ahead.
COVID-19 Deaths Per 100,000 Inhabitants: A Comparison – Statista
The Johns Hopkins University looked into the number deaths per 100,000 of the population in the top-10 countries worst affected by COVID-19. Belgium had over 57,000 cases on May 25 but it had the highest number of deaths per 100,000 of its inhabitants at 81.53. By comparison, badly-hit Spain and Italy had 57.43 and 55.64 deaths per 100,000 people respectively. The U.S. has surpassed 1.5 million cases and its deaths per 100,000 inhabitants stood at 30.02 on May 25.
It is important to keep in mind that countries measure these statistics differently. For example, the UK only includes deaths where people tested positive for COVID-19 while Belgium also includes suspected cases which has contributed to its higher total. A more recent overview, including other countries, is freely accessible here.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Coronavirus Statistics For 27 May 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 18,910 | 1,680,000 | 95,350 | 5,560,000 | 19.8% | 30.2% |
| Deaths | 696 | 98,916 | 3,935 | 345,994 | 17.7% | 28.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.15* | 42.79* | ||||
* as of 24 May 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Beige Book: Pessimistic Recovery Outlook For the Coronavirus Effected Economy
Female Unemployment Rates Soar Past Men. Women Hardest Hit In COVID Downturn.
May 2020 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves But Remains Deep In Contraction
Infographic Of The Day: College In The Age Of Coronavirus
Are People Investing In Stocks With Stimulus Checks?
Fast-Acting Countries Cut Their Coronavirus Death Rates While US Delays Cost Thousands Of Lives
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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