Written by Steven Hansen
The daily GLOBAL new coronavirus count reached record levels – and the U.S. new cases rose again today. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include the Nigerian Fraud ring which exploited Washington State’s unemployment payments; now Dr. Anthony Fauci thinks a immunization may be possible by the end of the year; and luxury cars were shipped to China whilst Hertz is selling off some of its cars to avoid bankruptcy.
Sometimes, science fiction has more truth then what we perceive as the truth. Here is a 2003 episode of Dead Zone, Plague which Predicts Coronavirus Outbreak and Chloroquine Cure. For those who do not want to waste 4 minutes viewing this video – the time stamps for various information: Origin of outbreak: China (2:14) – Coronavirus (2:29) – Chlorquin (2:56)
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Coronavirus vaccine in China produces neutralizing antibodies in early-stage trial – CNBC
A potential coronavirus vaccine developed in China appeared to provoke neutralizing antibodies in dozens of patients in an early-stage clinical trial, an important step in developing a vaccine that might provide immunity to Covid-19.
The vaccine candidate also induced binding antibodies in most of the patients within 28 days and appeared to be safe and well-tolerated, according to the findings of the phase one trial published Friday in The Lancet.
“These results represent an important milestone,” Wei Chen, a professor at the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology and who led the study, said in a press release. “However, these results should be interpreted cautiously. The challenges in the development of a Covid-19 vaccine are unprecedented, and the ability to trigger these immune responses does not necessarily indicate that the vaccine will protect humans from Covid-19.”
Flash PMI surveys show downturns easing in developed economies amid looser lockdown – IHS Markit
Ongoing efforts to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to sharp declines in output and employment across the major developed world economies for a third successive month in May, according to the latest business survey data, but rates of decline showed a welcome easing, in part due to some lifting of virus containment measures.
Coronavirus pandemic pushes China to abandon growth target – The Washington Post
China’s ruling Communist Party declined to set an economic growth target for the first time in 26 years, a sign of the enormous toll the novel coronavirus outbreak is taking on the world’s second-largest economy.
But in delivering his “work report” at the grandiose opening of the National People’s Congress in Beijing on Friday, Premier Li Keqiang instead shifted the party’s focus to the private sector and job creation.
‘Hundreds of millions of dollars’ lost in Washington to unemployment fraud amid coronavirus joblessness surge – Seattle Times
[editor’s note: this is part of the impact of the Nigerian Fraud Ring where the US Secret Service and other Federal Agencies were involved in the investigation, and their notice to the State probably prevented many millions more from being lost.]
Washington state officials have acknowledged the loss of “hundreds of millions of dollars” to an international fraud scheme that hammered the state’s unemployment insurance system and could mean even longer delays for thousands of jobless workers still waiting for legitimate benefits.
Suzi LeVine, commissioner of the state Employment Security Department (ESD), disclosed the staggering losses during a news conference Thursday afternoon. LeVine declined to specify how much money was stolen during the scam, which is believed to be orchestrated from Nigeria. But she conceded that the amount was “orders of magnitude above” the $1.6 million that the ESD reported losing to fraudsters in April.
LeVine said state and law enforcement officials were working to recover as much of the money as possible, though she declined to say how much had been returned so far. She also said the ESD had taken “a number of steps” to prevent new fraudulent claims from being filed or paid but would not specify the steps, to avoid alerting criminals.
South America has become the new epicenter of Covid-19, says WHO – LABS
The director of the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency program, Michael Ryan, declared on Friday (22) that South America has become the new epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, and Brazil as the epicenter in the region. As of Friday morning, 20,267 deaths from COVID-19 and 314,769 confirmed cases of the disease have been registered across the country.
The organization was asked if it was offering any type of direct assistance to Brazil, which registered a record daily deaths on Thursday (21), with 1,188 deaths in 24 hours, according to a balance sheet by the Ministry of Health. More than 20,000 people have already died in the country of COVID-19.
Ryan said that his “colleagues are providing direct assistance to the states affected”by the disease. He highlighted not only Sao Paulo, the epicentre of COVID-19 in the country, but states like Amazonas, which has a high infection rate, with around 419 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Navajo Nation enacts seventh weekend curfew after infection rate surpasses New York’s – The Washington Post
The Navajo Nation will enact a strict 57-hour curfew starting Friday night — its seventh weekend curfew in a row — as officials try to contain the coronavirus outbreak in an under-resourced part of the United States where the infection rate has climbed to among the highest in the world.
The curfew takes effect at 8 p.m. Friday and runs until 5 a.m. Monday, Memorial Day. The weekend curfew overlaps with an ongoing nightly curfew from the nation’s stay-at-home order requiring residents to stay inside from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. daily unless exempted by essential work or emergency.
Stretching across parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah, the Navajo Nation has reported more than 4,250 cases of covid-19 among a population of about 173,600 — a higher per capita infection rate than New York state.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is confident that the United States is on track for a coronavirus vaccine by late December or early January.
“I think it is conceivable, if we don’t run into things that are, as they say, unanticipated setbacks, that we could have a vaccine that we could be beginning to deploy at the end of this calendar year, December 2020, or into January, 2021,” he said in an interview with NPR’s “Morning Edition,” Friday morning.
He stressed that confidence doesn’t amount to a promise, and there are certainly issues that could derail the timeline. However, recent developments have only served to enhance his confidence. Most notably, the developments recently announced by Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna Therapeutics.
Earlier this week, the company announced positive early results in Phase 1 of their vaccine study.
“The vaccine induced what we call ‘neutralizing antibodies’ as opposed to just ‘binding antibodies,'” Fauci explained. “‘Neutralizing antibodies’ are antibodies that actually can block the virus… they did it at a moderate dose of the vaccine. That’s the reason why we thought it would be good news.”
CDC Warns About Rodents Amid Pandemic – WLTZ
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning that aggressive mice and rats could be a problem due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The agency says community-wide restaurant closures of are leading to a decrease in food available to rodents. Which is what they primarily rely on.
And some areas “have reported an increase in rodent activity as rodents search for new sources of food.”
It is not uncommon for the rodent population to decline and swell during natural disasters.
The CDC says during these times it is important to continue to practice safe rodent-control like: Removing food sources, water and shelter for rodents.
WH economic adviser says it’s “likely there will be a fourth phase of stimulus” – CNN
White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett said “it’s pretty likely that there will be a fourth phase of stimulus” and said we could see it “sooner rather than later.”
Hassett also said that there are some technical things that need to be fixed from the previous stimulus packages.
When asked by CNN’s Poppy Harlow if the need for another stimulus bill is due to economic numbers being worse than initially anticipated, Hassett said no, “but there is still a lot of pain out there.” He added that almost 70% of businesses are opening up and “we are getting back to normal.”
Universal Orlando Resort to welcome guests to parks June 5 – WFTV
Universal Orlando Resort said it is getting ready to reopen and welcome guests to its parks.
The company said Universal Studios, Islands of Adventure and Volcano will reopen on June 5.
[editor’s note: Universal Orlando just received the governor’s approval to reopen]
Trump to donate this quarter’s salary to Department of Health and Human Services – CNN
President Trump will donate his salary from this quarter to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) “to develop new therapies for treating and preventing Covid-19.”
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany made the announcement at a news briefing on Friday.
“Here is the check amounted to $100,000,” McEnany said, holding up what appeared to be a signed, full-page check. “That will go directly from President Trump and his paycheck that he does not take but rather donates it to various noble initiatives, including in honor of Covid this time.”
Some context: In March, then-White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham announced Trump would donate his salary from the last quarter of 2019 to HHS, as the department worked on combating coronavirus.
Since taking office, Trump has donated his salary to various government agencies and efforts, including the Surgeon General’s Office, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Hertz Dumps Fleet Of Corvettes While Trying To Avoid Bankruptcy – ZeroHedge
A tidal wave of supply is hitting the used car market as insolvent rental car companies are forced to liquidate fleets to avert bankruptcy or, if past the default Rubicon, repay creditors during bankruptcy proceedings. Case in point: soon to be bankrupt rental car giant Hertz is dumping a fleet of sports cars on the used car market at significant discounts as it scrambles to build up a liquidity war chest .
First spotted by Jalopnik, Hertz has flooded the used car market with a fleet of 2019 Chevrolet Corvette Z06s, selling at significant discounts to Kelley Blue Book fair value. Some of the Vettes have made it onto AutoTrader, selling between $58,995 to $63,295, far below the Kelley Blue Book’s $76,938 to $85,275 fair value range. Below is a chart showing the Kelly Blue Book value of 2019 Chevrolet Corvette Z06s vs. Hertz’s liquidation price
In short, this is the start of a firesale by the distressed rental car company, and once Hertz is forced into bankruptcy creditors could liquidate even more of its fleet. So you ask, just how many rental cars Hertz has in its entire fleet? Well, Jalopnik provides the answer below:
“Used car prices fell 34.4 percent in April, according to the Detroit Free Press, and used car dealers are cutting back on building up inventory. While the Freep says that used car prices could go up soon due to a shortage of new cars caused by plant closures, there is another factor to consider: The more than half a million cars currently sitting on beleaguered Hertz Car Rental’s books.”
As Virus Raged, China Snapped Up Luxury Cars Made in America – Bloomberg
A raging pandemic, lockdowns and continued trade tensions didn’t curb China’s enthusiasm for some U.S.-built luxury cars.
Alabama’s auto exports to China in the first quarter soared more than 170% from a year ago, Greg Canfield, the state’s secretary of commerce, said in an interview. Three foreign automakers — Honda, Hyundai and Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz — operate assembly plants in the state, which hasn’t yet broken down the Chinese exports for each company. Together they produce about 1 million vehicles a year in Alabama for domestic sales and export, Canfield said.
“By far our largest exporter on the automobile side comes from Mercedes,” he said. The Alabama Mercedes plant is the exclusive worldwide manufacturer for some of its most popular sport-utility vehicles, including the GLE and GLS, which sell at base prices of more than $50,000 in the U.S.
“The luxury makers are doing exceptionally well in China,” said Alan Baum, principal of the auto-industry research firm, Baum and Associates. “Yes, there’s a short-term economic problem, but just as you’re going to see in the U.S. as the auto industry recovers, it’s going to recover at the top end well before it recovers at the bottom end.”
Mnuchin sees ‘strong likelihood’ of needing another COVID-19 relief bill – The Hill
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday said there is a “strong likelihood” that another coronavirus relief bill will be needed as more states start to reopen and the economy struggles to stabilize.
“We’re going to carefully review the next few weeks,” Mnuchin said in an interview with The Hill’s Bob Cusack during a virtual event. “I think there is a strong likelihood we will need another bill, but we just have $3 trillion we’re pumping into the economy.”
“We’re going to step back for a few weeks and think very clearly how we need to spend more money and if we need to do that,” he added.
Cascading weaknesses in the federal disaster response system are being exposed. – New York Times
For decades, the backbone of the nation’s disaster response system — and a hallmark of American generosity — has been its army of volunteers who race toward danger to help shelter, feed and counsel victims of hurricanes, wildfires and other calamities.
However, the pandemic has exposed a critical weakness in this system: Most volunteers are older people at higher risk from the virus, so this year they can’t participate in person. Typically more than 5 million volunteers work in disaster relief annually, said Greg Forrester, president of National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disasters, an association of nonprofit groups, but this year he expects the number to decline by 50 percent.
Asked how disaster relief efforts can meet the usual demand with half as many people, Mr. Forrester said: “You won’t.”
It is the latest in a cascading series of problems facing an already fraying system ahead of what is expected to be an unusually severe hurricane season combined with disasters like this week’s dam collapse and flooding in Michigan, a state particularly hard hit by Covid-19.
Trump Tells Governors To Let Places Of Worship Reopen ‘Right Now’ – Barrons
President Donald Trump on Friday demanded that US state governors allow places of worship to reopen immediately, as the country moves gradually towards a lifting of COVID-19 lockdown measures.
“Today I am identifying houses of worship — churches, synagogues and mosques — as essential places that provide essential services,” Trump told a news conference at the White House.
“The governors need to do the right thing and allow these very important essential places of faith to open right now, for this weekend,” he said.
“If they don’t do it, I will override the governors. In America, we need more prayer, not less.”
Coronavirus Statistics For 22 May 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 25,434 | 1,580,000 | 106,122 | 5,070,000 | 24.0% | 31.2% |
| Deaths | 1,263 | 94,702 | 4,755 | 332,711 | 26.6 % | 28.5% |
| Mortality Rate | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.21 | 36.96 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
15 May 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improves Again But Continues Deep In Contraction
Rail Week Ending 16 May 2020 – Biggest Weekly Decline Since 1988
Trucking Industry Growth Significantly Declines In April 2020 Due to Coronavirus Impact
Infographic Of The Day: How U.S. Consumers Are Spending Differently During COVID-19
Coronavirus: Is The R Number Still Useful?
Standard Money Theory And The Coronavirus
Is Working From Home A Privilege?
The “Market” Is Fighting With Itself Like Blue And Red Politicians
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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