Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved, remains deep in contraction, and remains at a level below the values seen during the Great Recession. In addition, ECRI released their coincident and lagging indices.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect. We are in a recession and just waiting for the NBER to declare it. Hopefully it will be decided quicker than the Great Recession which took one year.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.
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__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 122.7, as the growth rate increased to -28.8%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth significantly declined and continues to show economic contraction.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth declined.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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