Written by Steven Hansen
The daily new coronavirus count increased marginally again today. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include more controversy on the Moderna Vaccine; U.S. sends ventilators to Russia; Latin America overtakes the U.S. and Europe in new coronavirus cases; and $1.2 billion to AstraZeneca Plc to help make a COVID vaccine.
An entertaining coronavirus video based on Freddie Mercury’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
US Nursing Homes Plagued by Infection Control Issues Pre-COVID-19: Report – Reuters
U.S. nursing homes have been plagued with infection control deficiencies even before the coronavirus pandemic turned them into hotspots for COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, a government report said on Wednesday. Eighty-two percent of all nursing homes had an infection prevention and control deficiency cited in one or more years from 2013-2017, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. Forty-eight percent had such a deficiency cited in multiple years, according to the report compiled at the request of Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, based on data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. One of the first coronavirus outbreaks in the United States occurred at a nursing home in Washington state. Since then, nursing homes across the nation have reported cases. More than 30,000 coronavirus deaths are linked to long-term care facilities, according to the health non-profit Kaiser Family Foundation’s website. That is about one-third of the reported U.S. deaths related to the virus.
The Full Fauci Timeline: Sorting Fact From Fiction – Liberty Nation
[editor’s note: Dr. Anthony Fauci is controversial. What most do not realize is that he has advised six presidents as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. He is not a political appointee per se.]
… It all begins with what is not so affectionately called the China Cover-up.
Dec. 16, 2019: The first Coronavirus patient was seen at Wuhan Central Hospital, according to Dr. Ai Fen.
Dec. 31: More than two dozen cases of Coronavirus were confirmed by Wuhan health authorities. Local wet markets were closed, and China informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about the “pneumonia” but said it had “found no obvious person-to-person transmission, and no medical personnel have been infected.” By this time, however, several health care workers had reportedly been infected. Also, Taiwan sent WHO an alert, claiming it was possible for the disease to transfer from human to human.
Jan. 1, 2020: The New York Times used cellphone data to discover that 175,000 people left Wuhan (seven million more over the next few weeks).
Jan. 6: Dr. Fauci begins interviews to discuss the Coronavirus outbreak.
Jan. 20: China’s President Xi Jinping issued the first public statement about the virus, saying it “must be taken seriously.”
Jan. 20: Fauci announced a Coronavirus vaccine was already being worked on by the National Institutes of Health.
Jan 21: In an interview, Greg Kelly of Newsmax asked Fauci how serious the virus was. The doctor urged everyone to take the precautions that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) put out, “but this is not a major threat for the people in the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.”
Jan. 23: WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus voted against declaring the outbreak a public health emergency on an international level; he was the deciding vote. Wuhan lockdown went into effect, but by this time an estimated five million people had already traveled through and left the city for other parts of the country and world.
Jan. 28: A Health and Human Services (HHS) press briefing included Fauci, Director of the CDC Robert Redfield, Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Dr. Nancy Messonnier, and Secretary of HHS Alex Azar. Azar warned that “Americans should know that this is a potentially very serious public health threat.”
Jan. 30: The Trump administration had a conference call with state governors, Fauci, Azar, and Redfield, among others, and produced an action plan for the outbreak.
Jan. 31: Trump imposed travel restrictions to and from China.
Feb. 8: Fauci said the risk of contracting the virus is “minuscule.”
Feb. 17: Fauci told USA Today that wearing a mask is for the infected to protect others. “Now, in the United States, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask.”
Feb. 20: WHO reported 77,000 COVID-19 cases worldwide.
Feb. 24: The Trump administration requested $2.5 billion from Congress to fight the Coronavirus. On the same day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) toured San Francisco’s Chinatown, telling residents to support the neighborhood. “That’s what we’re trying to do today is to say everything is fine here,” she said. “Come because precautions have been taken. The city is on top of the situation.”
Feb. 29: The first Coronavirus death was reported in Seattle, WA.
Feb. 29: WHO said that it “continues to advise against the application of travel restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.”
Feb. 29: Fauci talks to the Today Show about “community spread” but “right now, at this moment, there is no need to change anything you’re doing on a day-to-day basis.”
March 9: Fauci tells reporters that young, healthy people can go on a cruise if they’d like. “If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.”
March 26: In an article for The New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci said, “… the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
April 28: Fauci said he is hopeful that a vaccine will be developed by the winter.
April 30: Fauci said he is “almost certain” the virus will return in the winter, yet he is optimistic for a vaccine.
May 12: Fauci now says the likelihood of developing a treatment or vaccine by the fall is “a bridge too far.”
To be fair, the doctor did warn on several occasions that things could change if we reached “community spreading.” But, looking over the progress of Coronavirus in the United States and the responses of experts, is it any wonder that the American people are bewildered?
Be sure to check LN‘s China-WHO timeline for more facts.
… Without going into conspiracy theories, this is a factual timeline of COVID-19 incidents, Fauci’s relevant comments, and the actions and statements of Trump and other members of his administration.
“Trust Is Being Undermined” – “Shading” Moderna Vaccine Results – ZeroHedge
Private companies, governments and research institutes are holding news conferences to report potential breakthroughs that cannot be verified. The results are always favorable, but the full data on which the announcements are based are not immediately available for critical review. This is “publication by press release,” and it’s damaging trust in the fundamental methods of science and medicine at a time when we need it most.
The most recent example is Moderna’s claim Monday of favorable results in its vaccine trial, which it announced without revealing any of the underlying data. The announcement added billions of dollars to the value of the company, with its shares jumping almost 20 percent. Many analysts believe it contributed to a 900-point gain in the Dow Jones industrial average.
The Moderna announcement described a safety trial of its vaccine based on eight healthy participants. The claim was that in all eight people, the vaccine raised the levels of neutralizing antibodies equivalent to those found in convalescent serum of those who recovered from covid-19. What to make of that claim? Hard to say, because we have no sense of what those levels were. This is the equivalent of a chief executive of a public company announcing a favorable earnings report without supplying supporting financial data, which the Securities and Exchange Commission would never allow.
There is a legitimate question regarding what Moderna’s unsupported assertion means. The scientific and medical literature reports that some people who have recovered have little to no detectable neutralizing antibodies. There is even existing scientific literature that suggests it is possible neutralizing antibodies may not protect animals or humans from infection or reinfection by coronaviruses.
Healthcare workers begin COVID-19 hydroxychloroquine trial – Reuters
British healthcare workers will on Thursday begin taking part in a University of Oxford-led international trial of two anti-malarial drugs to see if they can prevent COVID-19, including one U.S. President Donald Trump says he has been taking.
The ‘COPCOV’ study will involve more than 40,000 frontline healthcare workers from Europe, Africa, Asia and South America to determine if chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are effective in preventing the novel coronavirus.
Demand for hydroxychloroquine surged after Trump touted it in early April. Earlier this week the U.S. leader said he was now taking the drug as a preventive medicine against the virus despite medical warnings about its use.
… “The best way to find out if they are effective in preventing COVID-19 is in a randomised clinical trial.”
At least 5% of the UK has had coronavirus and 17% of Londoners, evidence suggests – ITV
At least 5% of people in the UK have had coronavirus, the results of an antibody surveillance study suggests, while around 17% of Londoners are believed to have caught it.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock, speaking at the government’s daily coronavirus update, said the result is “based on a sample” and that antibody tests are needed at a “larger scale” before the public can know whether they’ve had Covid-19.
As such, he said the government had reached a deal on the supply of 10 million commercial antibody tests which will be rolled out in a “phased way” from next week.
The tests, which reveal whether a person has had Covid-19 by checking if they have coronavirus antibodies, will be “free for people who need them” and priority will be given to NHS staff and care workers.
Mr Hancock warned, however, “we’re not yet in a position to say that those who test positive in these antibody tests are immune from coronavirus”.
Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts – Reuters
A Swedish study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholmers developed COVID-19 antibodies by late April, which could fuel concern that a decision not to lock down Sweden against the pandemic may bring little herd immunity in the near future.
The strategy was championed by Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, whose recommendation for voluntary measures against the virus, rather than a mandatory lockdown like those imposed by many other countries, has divided opinion at home and abroad.
Sweden’s strategy of keeping most schools, restaurants, bars and businesses open even as much of Europe hunkered down behind closed doors exposed it to criticism with death rates running far higher than in Nordic neighbours, even if much lower than in countries such as Britain, Italy and France that shut down.
The number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care in Sweden has fallen by a third from the peak in late April and health authorities say the outbreak is slowing. However, Sweden has recorded the highest number of COVID-19 deaths per capita in Europe over the last seven days.
At least four states combined data from two different test results, potentially providing a misleading picture of when and where coronavirus spread as the nation eases restrictions.
More than 1.5 million people in the United States have tested positive for coronavirus and over 93,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and Vermont have said they’ve been adding two numbers to their totals: viral test results and antibody test results.
Viral tests are taken by nose swab or saliva sample, and look for direct evidence someone currently has Covid-19. By contrast, antibody tests use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.
Coronavirus: Virus test with 20-minute results being trialled – BBC
A coronavirus test that gives results in 20 minutes is being trialled, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced.
The new swab test – which would show whether someone currently has the virus – does not need to be sent to a lab.
Mr Hancock also said more than 10 million antibody tests – that check if someone has had the virus in the past – will start being rolled out next week.
U.S. Sends Ventilators To Russia In $5.6 Million Coronavirus Aid Package – NPR
The United States delivered 50 ventilators to Russia on Thursday, part of a humanitarian aid package worth $5.6 million to help Moscow fight the coronavirus, U.S. officials said.
Another batch of 150 American-made ventilators will head to Russia next week, according to the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.
In a statement, the U.S. Embassy called the delivery “rapid fulfillment” of a request Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed on recent phone calls with President Trump.
“The United States and Russia have provided assistance to each other in the past, and I have no doubt will do so in the future,” John Sullivan, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, said in a video announcing the arrival of the U.S.-made ventilators.
Latin America overtakes US and Europe in new coronavirus cases three days in a row – CNN
Latin America has reported more new coronavirus cases than either the United States or Europe for three days in a row, driven by high numbers in Brazil, Peru and Mexico, CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University and World Health Organization data shows.
The numbers: The region reported at least 32,854 new cases on Wednesday, with more than half of them in Brazil.
The United States reported 22,534 new cases that day, according to Johns Hopkins University, while Europe – including Russia – reported about 17,900, according to the WHO. Both agencies rely on national governments for their data.
Latin America also reported more new cases than the Unites States or Europe on Tuesday, CNN calculations show: At least 29,240 in Latin America, compared to 22,391 in the United States and about 19,200 in Europe.
And on Monday, Latin America reported at least 23,388 new infections, while the United States reported 22,813 and Europe reported about 20,000.
COVID-19 Heats up the U.S.-China Competition – Stratfor
The human impact of the pandemic in Europe and the United States appeared far more severe than the comparable official statistics from China, and given Beijing’s history of manipulated numbers and information control, this raised questions about Chinese information sharing. This began shifting the global narrative from one focused on China’s containment measures to one of China’s hiding the truth. China may not have created the virus, nor intentionally spread it, but the bungling of information flows early on, and China’s apparent strong-arming of the World Health Organization to downplay the significance of the initial outbreak, left many nations claiming they could have been better prepared if China had told the truth.
Whether this is an accurate assessment, a way to cover for domestic missteps or some combination of the two, perceptions of Chinese culpability were heightened over the supply of personal protective equipment. When COVID-19 began spreading rapidly in China early in the year, there was a rush on PPE supplies across the developed world to ship to China to help contain the virus and protect health workers. This strained supply lines when the virus began spreading beyond Chinese borders, and Chinese shipments of PPE and COVID-19 test kits to select countries were quickly labeled politically motivated. When faulty test kits and counterfeit PPE began arriving amid public health crises, ire against China swelled further no matter what Beijing may have intended. Western nations from the United Kingdom to Australia rallied behind calls for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19, something China saw as part of a propaganda campaign to assert the Chinese government was behind the virus.
U.S. Raises Ante in Vaccine Race With $1.2 Billion for Astra – Bloomberg
The U.S. threw its weight behind one of the fastest-moving experimental solutions to the coronavirus pandemic, pledging as much as $1.2 billion to AstraZeneca Plc to help make the University of Oxford‘s Covid vaccine.
Beset by criticism of his response to the outbreak, President Donald Trump is pushing his way toward the front of the line to secure a shot to protect Americans from the virus and allow business to resume. The U.S. has backed projects underway at Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Inc. and France’s Sanofi, fueling concerns that other parts of the world could fall behind.
… The funding for AstraZeneca is part of the Operation Warp Speed effort to secure vaccines for the U.S., according to a statement from the U.S. Health and Human Services Department. The country expects 300 million doses to be available as early as October.
… [this ] the drug would enter phase III clinical trials in June, and they’ll run to the end of August. Astra shares rose 0.9% Thursday in London.
The CDC says coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ on surfaces or objects. – USA Today
Recent guidance issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sheds new light on how coronavirus spreads through surfaces.
Though there is the possibility that coronavirus could be transmitted by touching a surface — and then your nose, mouth or eyes — the likelihood of that is lower than person-to-person contact, which is believed to be the primary way coronavirus is transmitted.
“COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads,” says the CDC’s recently updated guidelines.
How Many Healthcare Workers Have Gotten Coronavirus? – Priceonomics
… ten states regularly publish how many coronavirus infections have befallen healthcare workers. Some of them do so on a daily basis, others weekly or more sporadically.
Along with Priceonomics customer RegisteredNursing.org, we analyzed the numbers of COVID-19 infected healthcare professionals according to state and CDC records.
Chart via RegisteredNursing.org
California leads this sample of states with approximately eight thousand coronavirus cases. It’s worth noting, however, that New York and New Jersey do not report coronavirus cases among healthcare workers, and they likely have many more given how prevalent the virus is in those states.
Coronavirus Statistics For 21 May 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 23,285 | 1,550,000 | 99,001 | 4,960,000 | 23.5% | 31.3% |
Deaths | 1,518 | 93,439 | 4,748 | 327,904 | 32.0 % | 28.5% |
Mortality Rate | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.21 | 36.96 |
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
CDC Reverses Stance, Says Coronavirus ‘does Not Spread Easily’ On Surfaces
April 2020 Leading Economic Index Declines Again – No Easy Path to Recovery
April 2020 Headline Existing Home Sales Significantly Declined Due To Coronavirus
May 2020 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Improves But Remains Below Great Recession Lows
16 May 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 2,438,000 This Week
Infographic Of The Day: How Global Central Banks Are Responding To COVID-19
Documentary Of The Week: Epidemics From The Black Death To Now
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover Of A Virus
What Will The World Look Like After COVID-19?
The Eerily Similar Pandemic We Could Have Learned From But Didn’t
U.S. Manufacturing Output Takes Biggest Hit In 100 Years
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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