Written by Steven Hansen
The daily new cases and death count due to coronavirus declined again – but numbers always fall over the weekend, and then rise as the week progresses. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include a survey which indicates 1/3 of small business will not reopen; World Health Organization promising probe into its handling of the pandemic; and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Surgeon urges the public to wear masks so ‘we can shut down the virus’ – CNBC
If 60% of people wore face masks that were at least 60% effective, “we can shut down the virus,” Dr. Atul Gawande told CNBC.
“Yes, there are going to be people who don’t want to wear their mask, just like they don’t necessarily want to get their vaccinations,” said Gawande, a surgeon at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. “But above a certain level, and it doesn’t have to be perfect, we can create the change.”
A double-layered, well-fitted cotton mask is likely at least 60% effective, according to Gawande.
“This is about us learning, not about becoming vigilantes with each other, but about building a way that we are actively interested in preventing infecting one another,” he said.
New Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate Shows Promise In Early, Limited Trial – NPR
A vaccine manufacturer is reporting preliminary data suggesting its COVID-19 vaccine is safe, and appears to be eliciting in test subjects the kind of immune response capable of preventing disease.
Moderna, Inc., of Cambridge, Mass., developed the vaccine in collaboration with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The results reported Monday come from an initial analysis of a Phase I study primarily designed to see if the vaccine is safe.
The company reports no serious side-effects; however, modest side-effects included redness at the injection site, headache, fever and flu-like symptoms, although none of these lasted more than a day.
The first 45 volunteers for the vaccine trial were divided into three groups, with each group getting a different dose of the vaccine. All groups got an initial shot, followed by a booster shot a month later.
In addition to safety, the company also looked at the vaccine’s ability to induce antibodies to the coronavirus — what’s known as its immunogenicity. It did, for all subjects at all dose levels. In addition, eight of the subjects were tested for the presence of neutralizing antibodies that prevent the virus from infecting cells in the laboratory. All eight did.
The Food and Drug Administration has given Moderna the green light to begin a Phase II study expected to enroll an additional 600 volunteers — half older than 55 — to provide additional immunogenicity data. The company hopes by July to begin a Phase III study, aimed at showing that the vaccine can actually prevent disease.
The Moderna vaccine is made using messenger RNA, or mRNA, a molecule containing the genetic instructions to make a protein on the coronavirus surface that is recognized by our immune systems. Although mRNA vaccines have been studied for several years, so far none has been licensed by the FDA.
The advantage of mRNA vaccines over more traditional vaccines is they can be made quickly. The company says it was just 63 days from the time Chinese scientists revealed the genetic sequence to the time a vaccine was injected into the first volunteer.
Coronavirus vaccine for 30 million Britons by September if trial succeeds – Sky News
Plans are in place to roll out a COVID-19 vaccine to 30 million people by September if trials are successful, Business Secretary Alok Sharma has said.
It comes as the UK announced a further 170 deaths of people with coronavirus – the lowest since the day after lockdown began.
Speaking at Sunday’s Downing Street news conference, which was delayed due to technical difficulties, the cabinet minister said work by the University of Oxford to find an effective drug was “progressing well”.
Of small and medium-sized businesses that have been forced to shut down during the coronavirus pandemic, more than half of owners surveyed by Facebook said they won’t rehire the same workers they had before the crisis.
In a report released Monday, Facebook said it surveyed 86,000 small and medium-sized business owners, managers and employees for an ongoing data initiative with the World Bank and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The report highlights the lasting economic impact of the coronavirus and the especially dire effect it’s having on smaller businesses without the same level of access to capital that larger corporations often have.
According to the report, only 45% of owners and managers of small and medium-sized businesses surveyed by Facebook said they would rehire the same workers they were forced to let go or furlough once they reopen. If that estimate holds true for similar businesses across the country, it could devastate predictions for a swift economic recovery from the crisis.
About a third of closed businesses surveyed said they do not expect to reopen, with many citing an inability to pay bills or rent.
Indonesia’s government was slow to lockdown, so its people took charge – National Geographic
As cases of COVID-19 rose in Indonesia, the central government lived in denial. For weeks, it refused to say the nation of 267 million had a single case. Then it rejected lockdowns. So many Indonesians have created their own lockdowns. They’ve blocked off alleyways and have distributed food. Today, China is the only Asian nation with a higher COVID-19 death toll than Indonesia.
As deadline looms, companies rush to return small business funds – Politico
Public outrage and Trump administration pressure have forced dozens of companies to return government-backed small business loans, sweeping up not only major brands like Shake Shack and Potbelly but also smaller employers that don’t want to face scrutiny.
The companies are scrambling to give back the Paycheck Protection Program loans before a Monday deadline the administration set for borrowers to return the aid if there’s any doubt they need the money, or else face audits. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been returned by companies that file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In the past week, organizations including the Aspen Institute think tank, biotech firm 22nd Century Group, mattress fabric manufacturer Culp and medical device company CHF Solutions announced they were relinquishing funds.
The loans, which Congress created to help avert massive layoffs during the Covid-19 pandemic, have proven hugely popular because they can be forgiven if borrowers maintain their payrolls. But the Trump administration has so far declined to name the recipients, fueling concern over whether too much of the aid is going to big companies with access to other forms of financing.
The Small Business Administration and the Treasury Department, which are running the program, last month began urging large, publicly traded companies to return any loans after a backlash over revelations that Wall Street-backed corporations were benefiting. Though the loans were targeted at employers with 500 workers or fewer, Congress included exemptions that allowed bigger companies to seek the aid.
Azar castigates the W.H.O. at a global health meeting, as China pledges more aid. – New York Times
Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of Health and Human Services, sharply criticized the World Health Organization on Monday, saying its handling of the outbreak in China led to unnecessary deaths.
Mr. Azar’s combative remarks, delivered in a prepared video to the World Health Assembly, the global health agency’s annual meeting and its first during the pandemic, is a significant escalation of the Trump administration’s efforts to deflect blame over the United States government’s halting response to the virus.
“We must be frank about one of the primary reasons that this outbreak spun out of control,” Mr. Azar said. “There was a failure by this organization to obtain the information that the world needed, and that failure cost many lives.”
WHO chief promises probe into virus response at ‘appropriate’ time as China gives $2bn to relief effort – The Telegraph
The World Health Organization has backed calls for an independent inquiry into its handling of the pandemic as China pledged $2billion for efforts to contain the coronavirus in developing countries and the US accused the body of presiding over a costly failure.
Speaking at the World Health Assembly – the decision-making body of the WHO – director general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he welcomed a proposal by more than 120 countries – tabled by the European Union and Australia but not China – for a “stepwise process of impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation” of its response to the pandemic.
Coronavirus ‘greatest challenge of our age’: UN chief – Time of India
The Secretary-General of the United Nations has called the ongoing coronavirus pandemic “the greatest challenge of our age”, and said it’s still unclear when we will have effective treatments or vaccines against the disease.
In a virtual address to the World Health Organization’s decision-making body on Monday, Antonio Guterres echoed the WHO’s repeated calls for global solidarity, saying “we are all paying a heavy price” for the sometimes contradictory national responses to the pandemic.
“Many countries have ignored the recommendations of the World Health Organization”, he said. “As a result, the virus has spread across the world and is now moving into the global south, where its impact may be even more devastating and we are risking further spikes and waves.”
Guterres said it was a “false dichotomy” to assume governments would be choosing between saving their citizens or their economies.
Judge Denies “Pharma Bro” Shkreli Prison Release to Research Coronavirus Cure: “Delusional” – Slate
Remember Martin Shkreli? The 37-year-old who infamously became known as “Pharma Bro” and was sentenced in March 2018 to seven years behind bars after he was convicted of securities fraud for lying to investors is back in the news. This time it’s because a judge roundly rejected his request to be released from prison early so that he could work on a cure for the coronavirus. “The court does not find that releasing Mr. Shkreli will protect the public, even though Mr. Shkreli seeks to leverage his experience with pharmaceuticals to help develop a cure for COVID-19 that he would purportedly provide at no cost,” District Judge Kiyo Matsumoto wrote. “In any event, Mr. Shkreli’s self-described altruistic intentions do not provide a legal basis to grant his motion.”
In denying the request, Matsumoto pointed to the way probation officials characterized Shkreli’s claim that he could help to find a COVID-19 cure just the type of “delusional self-aggrandizing behavior” that contributed to his conviction. “Shkreli has no formal scientific training and no experience working [in] a laboratory setting, and he does not explain why he cannot continue to develop and discuss any ideas he may have about COVID-19 from prison, as he has,” prosecutors wrote to the judge. And even if he were to somehow find a cure, there’s no evidence to suggest he would not use it “to enrich himself to the maximum extent possible, including by concealing his work or declining to provide such a cure to others unless he were paid an exorbitant sum.”
Coronavirus: France, Germany propose €500 billion recovery fund – DW
The leaders of France and Germany proposed Monday a one-off €500 billion ($540 billion) rescue fund to help the European Union’s economy recover from the impact of the coronavirus crisis. The agreement between the two nations was reached following virtual talks held that afternoon.
Under the proposal, the funds would be given as grants to hardest-hit sectors and regions in the EU.
The 27 EU countries would also borrow together on financial markets to raise the funds. The proposed €500 billion in grants would be in addition to the 2021-2027 EU budget that is close to €1 trillion for this period.
The agreement between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron — the leaders of the eurozone’s two largest economies — may pave the way for a larger deal within the EU.
Sen. Warren on brother’s COVID-19 death: ‘It just feels like something that didn’t have to happen’ – USA Today
Sen. Elizabeth Warren said watching her oldest brother die from a distance after contracting COVID-19 was something she will never get over.
In an interview excerpt published by The Atlantic, the Massachusetts Democrat discussed the pain and anxiety of losing Donald Reed Herring, 86, to the coronavirus, an experience shared by the loved ones of the nearly 90,000 people in the U.S., and more than 316,000 around the world, who have died in the pandemic.
“It just feels like something that didn’t have to happen,” Warren said of Herring’s death on April 21 in a Norman, Oklahoma, hospital. Herring overcame pneumonia in February and contracted the coronavirus at an inpatient facility where a doctor had sent him for rehabilitation.
It’s a massive reopening day all across America – USA Today
Auto plants in Michigan. Restaurants in Maine. Malls in Minnesota. Gyms in South Carolina. Monday is a big day for reopening in America. State and localities are easing stay-at-home restrictions across the country but encouraging social distancing and face masks by residents. Meanwhile, the number of Americans who say they are social distancing has dropped since late March, according to a Gallup poll released last week. But the drop isn’t just from individuals who live in states where they can now dine in restaurants, get haircuts at barbershops or visit parks. More people in states that still have stay-at-home restrictions are also no longer social distancing.
Chairman Crapo, Ranking Member Brown, and other members of the Committee, thank you for the opportunity to discuss the extraordinary steps the Federal Reserve has taken to address the challenges we are facing.
I would like to begin by acknowledging the tragic loss and tremendous hardship that people are experiencing both here in the United States and around the world. The coronavirus outbreak is, first and foremost, a public health crisis, with the most important responses coming from those on the front lines in hospitals, emergency services, and care facilities. On behalf of the Federal Reserve, let me express our sincere gratitude to those individuals who put themselves at risk day after day in service to others and to our nation.
The forceful measures that we, as a country, are taking to control the spread of the virus have substantially limited many kinds of economic activity. Many businesses remain closed, people have been advised to stay home, and basic social interactions have been greatly curtailed. People have put their lives and livelihoods on hold at significant economic and personal cost. All of us are affected, but the burdens are falling most heavily on those least able to carry them.
It is worth remembering that the measures taken to contain the virus represent an investment in our individual and collective health. As a society, we should do everything we can to provide relief to those who are suffering for the public good.
Available economic data for the current quarter show a sharp drop in output and an equally sharp rise in unemployment. By these measures and many others, the scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent and are significantly worse than any recession since World War II. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs, reversing nearly 10 years of job gains. This precipitous drop in economic activity has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future. In addition to the economic disruptions, the virus has created tremendous strains in some essential financial markets and impaired the flow of credit in the economy.
The Federal Reserve’s response to this extraordinary period has been guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote stability of the financial system. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time even as we recognize that these actions are only a part of a broader public-sector response. Congress’s passage of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) was critical in enabling the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to establish many of the lending programs that I discuss below.
In discussing the actions we have taken, I will begin with monetary policy. In March, we lowered our policy interest rate to near zero, and we expect to maintain interest rates at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
In addition to monetary policy, we took forceful measures in four areas: open market operations to restore market functioning; actions to improve liquidity conditions in short-term funding markets; programs in coordination with the Treasury Department to facilitate more directly the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments; and measures to allow and encourage banks to use their substantial capital and liquidity levels built up over the past decade to support the economy during this difficult time.
Let me now turn to our open market operations and the circumstances that necessitated them. As tensions and uncertainty rose in mid-March, investors moved rapidly toward cash and shorter-term government securities, and the markets for Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, started to experience strains. These markets are critical to the overall functioning of the financial system and to the transmission of monetary policy to the broader economy. In response, the Federal Open Market Committee undertook purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning. With these purchases, market conditions improved substantially, and thus we have slowed our pace of purchases. While the primary purpose of these open market operations is to preserve smooth market functioning and effective policy transmission, the purchases will also foster more accommodative financial conditions.
As a more adverse outlook for the economy associated with COVID-19 took hold, investors exhibited greater risk aversion and pulled away from longer-term and riskier assets as well as from some money market mutual funds. To help stabilize short-term funding markets, we lengthened the term and lowered the rate on discount window loans to depository institutions. The Board also established, with the approval of the Treasury Department, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) under our emergency lending authority in section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Under the PDCF, the Federal Reserve provides loans against good collateral to primary dealers that are critical intermediaries in short-term funding markets. Similar to the large-scale purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS I mentioned earlier, this facility helps restore normal market functioning.
In addition, under section 13(3) and together with the Treasury Department, we set up the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, or CPFF, and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, or MMLF. Both of these facilities have equity provided by the Treasury Department to protect the Federal Reserve from losses. Indicators of market functioning in commercial paper and other short-term funding markets improved substantially and rapid outflows from prime and tax-exempt money market funds stopped after the announcement and implementation of these facilities.
In mid-March, offshore U.S. dollar funding markets also came under stress. In response, the Federal Reserve and several other central banks announced the expansion and enhancement of dollar liquidity swap lines. In addition, the Federal Reserve introduced a new temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign monetary authorities. These actions helped stabilize global U.S. dollar funding markets, and they continue to support the smooth functioning of U.S. Treasury and other financial markets as well as U.S. economic conditions.
As it became clear the pandemic would significantly disrupt economies across the world, markets for longer-term debt also faced strains. The cost of borrowing rose sharply for those issuing corporate bonds, municipal debt, and asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by consumer and small business loans. Effectively, creditworthy households, businesses, and state and local governments were unable to borrow at reasonable prices, which would have further reduced economic activity. In addition, small and medium-sized businesses that traditionally rely on bank lending faced large increases in their funding needs as they struggled with possible closure or substantially curtailed revenues.
To support the longer-term, market-based financing that is critical to economic activity, the Federal Reserve took a number of bold steps. These steps were designed to ensure that credit would flow to borrowers and thus support economic activity. With credit protection provided by the Treasury Department, on March 23 the Board announced that it would support consumer and small business lending by establishing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The TALF will lend against ABS backed by newly issued auto loans, credit card loans, and other consumer and small business loans. In turn, these loans will support consumers seeking to obtain these important types of credit.
The Federal Reserve also took action with the Treasury Department under section 13(3) to support the credit needs of large employers through the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility. These facilities primarily purchase bonds issued by U.S. companies that were investment grade on March 22, 2020. By purchasing these bonds, the Federal Reserve is able to lower the borrowing costs for investment-grade companies and thus facilitate economic activity.
The Federal Reserve is also preparing to launch the Main Street Lending Program, which is designed to provide loans to small and medium-sized businesses that were in good financial standing before the pandemic. Importantly, with these and other facilities that the Federal Reserve has not employed before, public input has been crucial in their development. For example, in response to comments received, we lowered the minimum loan size and raised the maximum loan size across the three lending facilities within the program; in addition, we expanded the size of firms allowed to borrow under the program to companies with up to 15,000 employees. These changes should help the program meet the needs of a wider range of employers that may need bridge financing to support their operations and the economic recovery. We will continue to adjust facilities as we learn more.
To bolster the effectiveness of the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the Federal Reserve is supplying liquidity to lenders backed by their PPP loans to small businesses. And to help state and local governments better manage cash flow pressures in order to continue to serve households and businesses in their communities, the Federal Reserve, together with the Treasury Department, established the Municipal Liquidity Facility under section 13(3) authority to purchase short-term debt directly from U.S. states, counties, cities, and certain multistate entities. The two corporate credit facilities, the Main Street Lending Program, and the Municipal Liquidity Facility all have equity provided by the Treasury Department to protect the Federal Reserve from losses. The passage of the CARES Act by Congress was critical in enabling the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to establish these real economy emergency lending programs that have the capacity to make more than $2.6 trillion in loans.
The tools that the Federal Reserve is using under its 13(3) authority are for times of emergency, such as the ones we have been living through. When economic and financial conditions improve, we will put these tools back in the toolbox.
The final area where we took steps was in bank regulation. The Board made several adjustments, many temporary, to encourage banks to use their positions of strength to support households and businesses. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, banks entered this period with substantial capital and liquidity buffers and improved risk-management and operational resiliency. As a result, they have been well positioned to cushion the financial shocks we are seeing. In contrast to the 2008 crisis when banks pulled back from lending and amplified the economic shock, in this instance they have greatly expanded loans to customers. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles spoke to you about these topics last week.
The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with an important mission, and we have taken unprecedented steps in very rapid fashion over the past few months. In doing so, we embrace our responsibility to the American people to be as transparent as possible. We are deeply committed to transparency, and recognize that the need for transparency is heightened when we are called upon to use our emergency powers. This is particularly the case when Congress appropriates taxpayer funds to back lending programs that the Fed administers. In connection with the CARES Act facilities—including the two corporate credit facilities, the Main Street Lending Program, the Municipal Liquidity Facility, and the TALF—we will be disclosing, on a monthly basis, names and details of participants in each facility; amounts borrowed and interest rate charged; and overall costs, revenues, and fees for each facility.
Coronavirus Statistics For 18 May 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 18,873 | 1,490,000 | 80,965 | 4,680,000 | 23.3% | 31.8% |
Deaths | 808 | 89,562 | 3,330 | 315,005 | 24.3 % | 28.4% |
Mortality Rate | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.14 | 32,39 |
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Emerging From The Great Lockdown In Asia And Europe
Drive-In Movie Theaters Booming Back To Life During Pandemic
Inflation Expectations In Times Of COVID-19
Coronavirus Round Table IV – The 2nd Inning
Governments Must Resist Coronavirus Lobbying And Focus On Long-term Transformation
One Infected Clubgoer Triggers Massive Response
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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