Written by Steven Hansen
The death count due to coronavirus today fell to levels not seen since 02 April 2020. New coronavirus cases also significantly declined today to almost the lowest level seen since March 2020. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which show increased exports of meat to China (is there a shortage of meat in the U.S.?)
I am cautiously optimistic about the decline in new cases and deaths today – but I warn readers that for whatever reason the weekends and early in each week see lower counts. Also, I am concerned that the average Joe sees the partial reopenings happening all over America and will lower their defenses to reduce transmissibility.
Today’s entertainment is the debate on face masks.
Dr. Fauci says there is no reason to be walking around with a mask. I have included a study today on the use of masks – which contradicts Dr. Fauci.
NBC News contributor Dr. Joseph Fair, a virologist, tells TODAY that Americans are being advised to wear face masks because asymptomatic coronavirus carriers can spread the disease via “silent infections.” He says to use anything you can tie around your face, not face masks medical professionals use. He says “there should be a nationwide mandate” to wear facial coverings.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
As U.S. meat workers fall sick and supplies dwindle, exports to China soar – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump ordered meat processing plants to stay open to protect the nation’s food supply even as workers got sick and died. Yet the plants have increasingly been exporting to China while U.S. consumers face shortages, a Reuters analysis of government data showed.
Trump, who is in an acrimonious public dispute with Beijing over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak, invoked the 1950 Defense Production Act on April 28 to keep plants open. Now he is facing criticism from some lawmakers, consumers and plant employees for putting workers at risk in part to help ensure China’s meat supply.
Meat buyers in China ramped up imports from around the world as a pig disease decimated its herd, the world’s largest, and pushed Chinese pork prices to record highs. The supply shock drove China to pay more for U.S. meat than other countries, and even U.S. consumers, since late 2019.
“We know that over time exports are critically important. I think we need to focus on meeting domestic demand at this point,” said Mike Naig, the agriculture secretary in the top U.S. pork-producing state of Iowa who supported Trump’s order.
As States Rush to Reopen, Scientists Fear a Coronavirus Comeback – New York Times
Officials are under pressure to restart the economy, but many states are moving too quickly, researchers say. The costs may be measured in lost lives.
Millions of working people and small-business owners who cannot earn money while sheltering at home are facing economic ruin. So dozens of states, seeking to ease the pain, are coming out of lockdown.
Most have not met even minimal criteria for doing so safely, and some are reopening even as coronavirus cases rise, inviting disaster. The much-feared “second wave” of infection may not wait until fall, many scientists say, and instead may become a storm of wavelets breaking unpredictably across the country.
The reopenings will proceed nonetheless. The question now, scientists say, is whether the nation can minimize the damage by intelligently adopting new tactics.
Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review – Preprints [editor’s note: this study has not been peer reviewed]
The science around the use of masks by the general public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. Policymakers need guidance on how masks should be used by the general population to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we synthesize the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: 1) transmission characteristics of COVID-19, 2) filtering characteristics and efficacy of masks, 3) estimated population impacts of widespread community mask use, and 4) sociological considerations for policies concerning mask-wearing. A primary route of transmission of COVID-19 is likely via small respiratory droplets, and is known to be transmissible from presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Reducing disease spread requires two things: first, limit contacts of infected individuals via physical distancing and contact tracing with appropriate quarantine, and second, reduce the transmission probability per contact by wearing masks in public, among other measures. The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at stopping spread of the virus when compliance is high. The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Thus we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.
Results Of the 48 children with COVID-19 admitted to participating PICUs, 25 (52%) were male, and the median (range) age was 13 (4.2-16.6) years. Forty patients (83%) had significant preexisting comorbidities; 35 (73%) presented with respiratory symptoms and 18 (38%) required invasive ventilation. Eleven patients (23%) had failure of 2 or more organ systems. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was required for 1 patient (2%). Targeted therapies were used in 28 patients (61%), with hydroxychloroquine being the most commonly used agent either alone (11 patients) or in combination (10 patients). At the completion of the follow-up period, 2 patients (4%) had died and 15 (31%) were still hospitalized, with 3 still requiring ventilatory support and 1 receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The median (range) PICU and hospital lengths of stay for those who had been discharged were 5 (3-9) days and 7 (4-13) days, respectively.
This early report describes the burden of COVID-19 infection in North American PICUs and confirms that severe illness in children is significant but far less frequent than in adults. Prehospital comorbidities appear to be an important factor in children. These preliminary observations provide an important platform for larger and more extensive studies of children with COVID-19 infection.
Coronavirus live updates: Most White House officials will be asked to wear masks, but directive will not apply to Trump – The Washington Post
Most White House officials will be asked to wear masks or face coverings in public spaces on complex grounds, a move to prevent coronavirus from spreading further inside the presidential compound, according to three administration officials with knowledge of a directive to be issued Monday.
The request does not apply to offices, however, and President Trump is still unlikely to wear a mask or face covering, aides say.
Fears are mounting over a coronavirus outbreak in the White House after two confirmed infections within the president’s orbit and what several officials have said are mixed messages on precautionary measures.
How lockdown is being lifted across Europe – BBC
After almost seven weeks of lockdown in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced the next phase of the country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Across Europe, people are already seeing an easing of lockdown measures, as businesses reopen and children start going back to school. Here is how Europeans are emerging from life under lockdown.
[editor’s note: click on the article link above as this post details each European country’s lockdown easing]
Trump may let workers take Social Security benefits early in exchange for reduced payments later – CNBC
- After a $2 trillion economic stimulus package, many Americans still want more financial relief from the government.
- The Trump administration is reportedly considering letting workers take Social Security benefits early in exchange for lower payments later.
- Social Security advocates were quick to criticize the idea because it could create more harm than good.
NYC Coronavirus Death Toll May Be Thousands of Fatalities Worse Than Official Tally: CDC – Hollywood Reporter
New York City’s death toll from the coronavirus may be thousands of fatalities worse than the official tally kept by the city and state, according to an analysis released Monday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Between mid-March and early May, about 24,000 more people died in the city than researchers would ordinarily expect, based on the season, the report said.
That’s about 5,300 more deaths than had been previously attributed to the coronavirus during that time period.
These so-called “excess deaths” could have been caused by byproducts of pandemic, the report found, including “the demand on hospitals and health care providers and public fear related to COVID-19” prompting delays in people seeking or receiving lifesaving care.
Dr. Anthony Fauci says there’s ‘virtually no chance’ that COVID-19 will be eradicated. – Business Insider
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that there’s little chance that the novel coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, will be completely eradicated in an interview with NBC Sports.
Fauci said that with “global travel, every single day, of literally hundreds of thousands of people coming into the United States every day from all over, there’s no chance we’re going to be virus-free.”
He said that the 2002 outbreak of SARS, caused by another type of coronavirus, was contained largely because it didn’t spread as quickly as the novel coronavirus.
“It is so transmissible, and it is so widespread throughout the world, that even if our infections get well-controlled and go down dramatically during the summer, there is virtually no chance it will be eradicated,” Fauci said.
Men could be more vulnerable to the coronavirus because they have higher levels of an enzyme that helps it latch onto the lungs, study says – Business Insider
Men could be more vulnerable to the coronavirus due to high levels of an enzyme that helps the virus attach to the lungs, according to a new study published in the peer-reviewed European Heart Journal.
A study of more than 3,500 people found much higher levels of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in its male subjects.
Although none of them had coronavirus — and were all elderly people with heart failure — the scientists have made a possible connection due to the way that ACE2 works with the virus.
Researchers have been trying to figure out for weeks why most studies have found that men are both more likely to be infected, and to die, from the virus.
Coronavirus Statistics For 11 May 2020
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 20,258 | 1,330,000 | 76,594 | 4,060,000 | 26.4% | 32.8% |
Deaths | 734 | 79,528 | 3,287 | 282,244 | 22.3% | 28.2% |
Mortality Rate | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.91 | 26.31 |
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Significant Deterioration in Consumer Expectations In April 2020
April 2020 Conference Board Employment Index Again Plummets
Historical Patterns Around Financial Crises
What You Need To Know About How Coronavirus Is Changing Science
A Hard-Eyed Look At Mass Transit
Racial Divide In Coronavirus Impact
The Downfall Of ‘Professor Lockdown’
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus.htm’); ?>
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- Is social distancing at 6 feet correct? Some are saying 4 meters (13 feet). And what is the correct social distance if one rides a bike?
- Will warm weather and higher humidity slow the coronavirus spread? Will September see another spike in cases? Next Winter may see more cases than seen previously.
- Should we decontaminate products (such as food) that are brought into the house?
- Does one develop immunity after recovering from coronavirus?
- Is COVID-19 mutating? How will this impact the ability to create immunization or even immunity?
- Are ventilators damaging patients – should oxygen be used instead?
- The U.S. outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan after the U.S. shut down its testing due to containment issues.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>