Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. pandemic new cases and deaths actually declined today. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include Elon Musk saying he is moving Tesla out of California; a 1st Coronavirus Antigen Test which could scale to test millions per day; and children have died from a mysterious coronavirus-related illness
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
FDA Grants Emergency Use Authorization For 1st Coronavirus Antigen Test – NPR
The Food and Drug Administration announced Saturday that it has granted its first emergency authorization to a new type of test that can detect the coronavirus called an antigen test
.The test looks for protein fragments associated with the virus. The sample is collected with a nasal swab. It can produce a result in minutes, the FDA said in a statement. The agency notes that compared to already approved genetic testing, the antigen test is cheaper and easier to use and could “potentially scale to test millions of Americans per day” once multiple manufacturers enter the market.
So far, only San Diego-based Quidel Corporation has received authorization for the tests. That authorization was granted late Friday.
Two other types of tests for the coronavirus have received the emergency authorization. One, called a polymerase chain reaction, or PCR test, is a molecular diagnostic tool that identifies the virus’s genetic material. The other is an antibody test.
Antigen testing is not without its shortcomings. The FDA notes that test is less reliable at ruling out infection in patients and that negative results “may need to be confirmed with a PCR test prior to making treatment decisions or to prevent the possible spread of the virus due to a false negative.”
Amid lockdown dispute, Musk says he will move Tesla out of California – Reuters
Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) chief executive Elon Musk tweeted on Saturday that Tesla will move its headquarters and future programs to Texas or Nevada from California immediately.
“If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependen (sp) on how Tesla is treated in the future,” he wrote on Twitter, referring to the facility in the San Francisco Bay area that is Tesla’s only U.S. vehicle factory.
… California Governor Gavin Newsom said on Thursday that manufacturers in the state would be allowed to reopen. But Alameda County, where the factory is located, is scheduled to remain shut until the end of May with only essential businesses allowed to reopen.
They don’t struggle to breathe—but COVID-19 is starving them of oxygen – National Geographic
One alarming symptom robs many patients of blood oxygen well before they notice. Doctors are racing to understand it.
Silent hypoxia has surprised many doctors. Some patients are running so low on oxygen, health-care workers would normally expect them to be incoherent or in shock. Instead, they’re awake, calm, and responsive. They chat with the physicians. They use their cell phones. While the basic physiology behind why these patients don’t immediately feel short of breath is well understood, scientists are still trying to come to grips with exactly how COVID-19 ravages the body, and why this disease, in particular, can quietly take your breath away.
First COVID-19 cases in France date back to November – CGTN
Doctors at the Albert Schweitzer Hospital of Colmar in eastern France said they’ve found evidence that the earliest COVID-19 cases in the country can be traced back to November 16, according to a press release from the hospital on Thursday.
Michel Schmitt, chief medical officer of the Medical Imaging Department at the Albert Schweitzer Hospital, conducted a retrospective study on all the 2,456 chest scans done in his department between November 1 and April 30 with different pathologies, including pulmonary, cardiac, and traumatic.
… They found that cases were registered in the hospital on November 16, months before France’s first officially reported cases on January 24. The incidence of pathology underwent a very slow progression until the end of February, and then a rapid increase with a peak on March 31.
Both countries are having to take measures to prevent a second spike after relaxing rules in order to open up their economies.
South Korea and Germany have both reported fresh coronavirus cases linked to relaxations to social distancing guidelines.
The two countries have been among the most successful in containing the Covid-19 pandemic.
But both are having to take measures to prevent a second spike after relaxing rules in order to open up their economies.
South Korea’s capital Seoul has shut down more than 2,100 nightclubs, hostess bars and discos after dozens of coronavirus infections were linked to clubgoers who went out last weekend.
Cannabis employees are in high demand during economic crash – Politico
Coronavirus hasn’t kept some cannabis companies down: They’re staffing up even as unemployment in many other sectors soars.
Weed businesses around the country that were in strong financial shape heading into the pandemic are hiring additional workers in response to robust demand for marijuana products. Almost all states have allowed pot shops to remain open, even though vast swaths of the retail economy have been shuttered for weeks.
Tracking the high coronavirus toll in U.S. nursing homes. – New York Times
At least 25,600 residents and workers have died from the coronavirus at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities for older adults in the United States, according to a New York Times database.
While just about 10 percent of the country’s cases have occurred in long-term care facilities, deaths related to Covid-19 in these facilities account for a third of the country’s pandemic fatalities. And in about a dozen states, including Maryland, Oregon and Colorado, such facilities account for an even larger segment — more than half — of deaths.
In the absence of comprehensive data from some states and the federal government, The Times has been assembling its own database of coronavirus cases and deaths at these facilities.
Three New York children have died from a mysterious coronavirus-related illness – The Washington Post
Three children in New York have died of a mysterious inflammatory syndrome believed to be related to the novel coronavirus, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said Saturday.
The state’s health department is investigating 73 reported cases among New York children of the syndrome, which has symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease or toxic shock syndrome, Cuomo said during a news conference. The children tested positive for the coronavirus or had antibodies triggered by the virus, but they were not hospitalized for respiratory symptoms.
“It’s not a respiratory illness,” he said. “(The children are) not in respiratory distress. I think that’s one of the reasons why this may be getting discovered this far into the process.”
Vitamin D Levels Appear to Play Role in COVID-19 Mortality Rates – Northwestern University
After studying global data from the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates.
Led by Northwestern Engineering, the research team conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The researchers noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of vitamin D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected.
This does not mean that everyone — especially those without a known deficiency — needs to start hoarding supplements, the researchers caution.
“While I think it is important for people to know that vitamin D deficiency might play a role in mortality, we don’t need to push vitamin D on everybody,” said the McCormick School of Engineering’s Vadim Backman, who led the research. “This needs further study, and I hope our work will stimulate interest in this area. The data also may illuminate the mechanism of mortality, which, if proven, could lead to new therapeutic targets.”
Second White House aide tests positive as U.S. jobless numbers soar – CBS News
As a second White House aide tested positive for coronavirus in two days, President Donald Trump held public events Friday with limited social distancing and without requiring participants to wear masks.
One of Vice President Mike Pence’s closest aides, press secretary Katie Miller, the wife of top Trump adviser Stephen Miller, confirmed that she tested positive on Friday after testing negative on Thursday. She said she was asymptomatic. An administration official told NBC News that her husband had tested negative for the virus.
Trump meanwhile, met with two dozen House Republicans and other administration officials in the State Dining Room at the White House on Friday, to discuss the economic toll of the pandemic, after the monthly employment report by the Department of Labor, the U.S. economy lost an unprecedented 20.5 million jobs in April and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7 percent.
Sweden still hasn’t locked down. But normal life is a luxury for only a few – National Geographic
In its approach to the coronavirus pandemic, the Swedish government is doing something few other countries are: It’s relying on individual responsibility to flatten the curve. The result could be that we gradually build herd immunity; at the end of April, officials estimated that Stockholm was just a few weeks from achieving that status based on rapid antibody testing. But the World Health Organization has warned that this particular brand of tests cannot measure immunity.
… In western and central Gothenburg, it appears that people are more afraid of economic failure than of death from the virus. But I don’t think people realize how scary the coronavirus is until a case hits close to home. My colleagues experienced that when two Swedish photographers recently died from COVID-19. People around me suddenly changed their view about the virus and started to take more precautions.
… Personally, I think there will be more restrictions in the near future, but I have a hard time imagining a complete lockdown. Swedes, who are too accustomed to their freedom, would protest. I don’t believe in a full lockdown; I think social distancing works to slow things down and flatten the curve. But it’s important to keep the economy rolling without risking more lives, and I know it can seem impossible to do both.
Coronavirus Statistics For 09 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 26,957 | 1,280,000 | 89,396 | 3,900,000 | 30.2% | 32.8% |
| Deaths | 1,510 | 77,180 | 5,041 | 274,290 | 30.0% | 28.1% |
| Mortality Rate | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.96 | 24.49 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Translating Weekly Jobless Claims Into Monthly Net Job Losses
State-Owned Enterprises In The Time Of COVID-19
Infographic Of The Day: The COVID-19 Effect On Global Food Insecurity
Why Jobless Claims Are Still So High
Past Pandemics Show How Coronavirus Budgets Can Drive Faster Economic Recovery
A Tale Of Two Drugs: Money Vs. Medical Wisdom
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- Is social distancing at 6 feet correct? Some are saying 4 meters (13 feet). And what is the correct social distance if one rides a bike?
- Will warm weather and higher humidity slow the coronavirus spread? Will September see another spike in cases? Next Winter may see more cases than seen previously.
- Should we decontaminate products (such as food) that are brought into the house?
- Does one develop immunity after recovering from coronavirus?
- Is COVID-19 mutating? How will this impact the ability to create immunization or even immunity?
- Are ventilators damaging patients – should oxygen be used instead?
- The U.S. outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan after the U.S. shut down its testing due to containment issues.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic.
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