Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. pandemic new cases have fallen for the third day in a row. Following is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which show that the New York Metro Area pandemic is abating whilst the rest of the country still has a growing number of new cases.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original – LA Times
Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.
In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.
The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.
The reality of the coronavirus in the U.S. is an unrelenting crush of cases and deaths. – NY Times
Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy could bring.
A panoramic view of the country reveals a grim and distressing picture.
“If you include New York, it looks like a plateau moving down,” said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “If you exclude New York, it’s a plateau slowly moving up.”
It is not just the major cities. Smaller towns and rural counties in the Midwest and South have suddenly been hit hard, underscoring the capriciousness of the pandemic.
U.S. Meat Shortage Leaves Some Wendy’s Without Hamburgers – Time
North America’s meat-supply chain has fallen apart as outbreaks shutter slaughterhouses, heightening the prospect that pork, beef and chicken may go missing from grocery shelves and restaurant menus. About a dozen slaughterhouses shut last month because of infections among employees jammed together on processing lines.
Wendy’s spent years establishing itself as the first major fast-food chain to offer fresh-never-frozen beef. Rivals such as McDonald’s have followed suit. It’s a shift that has left some companies more vulnerable to disruptions to American’s beef supply chain than ones that still rely on imports from Australia and other countries.
For Wendy’s, the shortages appear to have only affected some areas so far. Items such as the “Baconator” bacon cheeseburger, for example, were still available to order in Chicago.
Pfizer begins human testing for experimental coronavirus vaccine in the US – CNBC
Pfizer said Tuesday it has begun testing an experimental vaccine to combat the coronavirus in the United States.
The U.S.-based pharmaceutical giant, which is working alongside German drugmaker BioNTech, said the first human participants in the United States have been dosed with the potential vaccine, BNT162. They began human trials of the experimental vaccine late last month in Germany.
“With our unique and robust clinical study program underway, starting in Europe and now the U.S., we look forward to advancing quickly and collaboratively with our partners at BioNTech and regulatory authorities to bring a safe and efficacious vaccine to the patients who need it most,” Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement.
“The short, less than four-month time frame in which we’ve been able to move from preclinical studies to human testing, is extraordinary,” he added.
Germany Reports Continued Drop in New COVID-19 Cases – VOA
The head of Germany’s disease control institute said Tuesday the rate of new COVID-19 infections in that country continues to drop but says a second – or even third wave of infections is likely.
Robert Koch Institute President Lothar Wieler spoke with reporters in a virtual briefing in Berlin saying in the last few days, only 700 to 1,600 new cases per day were reported, showing the rate of increase continues to fall, which he called “very good news.”
Wieler said Germany’s current reproduction rate – the number of people infected by one person with the coronavirus – is at 0.71, less than one to one.
But he warned it is the nature of a virus in a pandemic to stay active until 60 to 70 percent of the population has been infected. That is why he says there is “a large degree of certainty among scientists that there will be a second wave. And many also assume that there will be a third wave.”
Indians’ mega evacuation begins Thursday; US returnees to pay Rs 1 lakh – Hindustan Times
Around 15,000 stranded Indians are expected to be flown back to India in 64 flights in the first week of the government’s mammoth exercise to evacuate stranded Indians from abroad, union civil aviation minister Hardeep Puri said Tuesday.
The passengers will be charged for the flights, said Puri, adding it is a commercial service being carried out under “special circumstances”. The minister said the exchequer does not have the space to pay for repatriation of more than 2,00,000 estimated stranded Indians.
Some of the fares (one way) from the Gulf countries such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha to Kochi, Kerala range from Rs 15,000 to Rs 16,000 [ approximately = $200]. Rescue flights from London to India will cost Rs 50,000 [US$660] while flights from the United States to India have been priced at Rs 1,00,000 [US$1320].
“If there was no charge, people wanting to come back would be much higher,” said the minister.
108 potential Covid-19 vaccines in the works worldwide – COVID-19 World News
The World Health Organization says 108 potential Covid-19 vaccines are in development around the world, according to documents posted on its website.
Eight of the potential vaccines have been approved for clinical trials.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) trial in the US was the first to start testing on human subjects on March 16.
Groups from around the world are in pre-clinical evaluation, including the University of Tokyo, Tulane University, University of Alberta and the University of Pittsburgh. In all, they total 100 groups, up from 96 on April 30th, according to the WHO.
Britons must adjust to a “new normal” when the UK moves to the next stage of its coronavirus response, Dominic Raab has said, looking ahead to an easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions.
The foreign secretary said Boris Johnson would update the public later this week on “the measures and decisions that we will need to take to protect the NHS, to safeguard the economy and to avoid the risk of a second peak”.
The next stage of the response will be “different”, Mr Raab said, with ministers currently working out how daily life can be adjusted so there are “safe new ways to work, to travel to interact, and to go about our daily lives”.
Mr Raab warned the public to “be under no illusions, the next stage won’t be easy”, but he said the government hopes it will be “more comfortable”.
Spain can’t rely on hopes for a vaccine, top health official says – CNN
Spain’s control of the coronavirus pandemic cannot be pinned on hopes of a vaccine, a top health official told the government today.
The Director for Health Emergencies Dr. Fernando Simón, said while it is his belief there will be a vaccine at some point, “other tools allow us to control the epidemic and reduce the impact on public health.”
The number of deaths from coronavirus in Spain is up by 185 in the last 24 hours, bringing the total death toll to 25,613. A total of 219,329 infections have been recorded in the country.
Daily numbers of recoveries outweigh the new infections rate by two and a half times, so “the figures are favorable, indicating a good process toward transition” said Simón, referring to Spain’s confinement de-escalation strategy toward a so-called new normality.
Norwegian Cruise Line says it may go out of business – CTV News
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings warned investors Tuesday that it might be forced to go out of business, as it tries to raise the money it’ll need to weather the coronavirus crisis.
In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Tuesday, the company said its accounting firm has “substantial doubt” about Norwegian’s ability to continue as a going concern because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Companies with this kind of dire outlook are sometimes able to turn things around and survive, although it often takes a trip through bankruptcy to shed debt and other liabilities in order to do so.
To that end, Norwegian announced that it arranged to borrow US$400 million from investment firm L Catterton through notes due in 2026.
YouTube CEO Vows to Censor Anyone Speaking Against WHO – Mercola
- Content that questions or contradicts the biased edicts of the World Health Organization is now being blocked, taken down or tagged as fake news on social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube
- April 26, 2020, Twitter suspended the account of the publicly traded biotech company AYTU BioScience for sharing information about its novel UV light therapy for COVID-19, which it is developing in collaboration with Cedars-Sinai medical center. YouTube also removed a video demonstrating how the technology works
- NewsGuard recently classified mercola.com as fake news because we reported the SARS-CoV-2 virus as potentially having been leaked from the biosafety level 4 laboratory in Wuhan City, China, despite U.S. and U.K. government officials admitting they are considering this possibility
- Facebook is also censoring posts that refer to SARS-CoV-2 possibly originating in a lab. The “fact check” basis for this censorship is an article written by a researcher who works with the Wuhan lab
- YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki — wife of Google product director Dennis Troper — says the platform will ban videos that contradict World Health Organization guidance on the pandemic or share “fake or unproven coronavirus remedies”
Covid-19 news: Europe’s first case may have been in December – New Scientist
A man who was treated at a hospital in France for suspected pneumonia may have had covid-19 as early as 27 December, according to a retest of old samples. France reported its first cases of coronavirus on 24 January, and these were among the first that were detected in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) spokesperson Christian Lindmeier has now urged countries to check their records for similar cases in order to provide a clearer picture of how and when outbreaks began. The testing result may not be conclusive however – it could possibly be a false positive.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) is an infectious acute respiratory caused by the novel coronavirus. The virus is a positive-strand RNA virus with high homology to bat coronavirus. In this study, conserved domain analysis, homology modeling, and molecular docking were used to compare the biological roles of specific proteins of the novel coronavirus. The results showed that some viral structural and nonstructural proteins could bind to the porphyrin, respectively. At the same time, orf1ab, ORF10 and ORF3a proteins coordinated to attack heme on the 1-beta chain of hemoglobin, dissociating iron to form porphyrin. Deoxyhemoglobin is more vulnerable to virus attacks than oxidized hemoglobin. The attack will cause less and less hemoglobin that can carry oxygen and carbon dioxide, producing symptoms of respiratory distress. Virus attack damaged many organs and tissues. Lung cells are toxic and inflammatory due to derivatives produced by the attack, which eventually resulted in ground-glass-like lung images. Capillaries easily broken due to inflammation. Proteins such as fibrinogen filled the capillaries’ cracks through the coagulation reaction. Therefore, many fibrin and thrombus gathered in the lung tissue of critically ill patients. The mechanism also interfered with the normal heme anabolic pathway of the human body, expecting to result in human disease. This paper is only for academic discussion, the correctness of the theory needs to be confirmed by other experiments. According to the reader’s suggestion, the content of the drug-related efficacy analysis has been deleted. Due to the side effects of drugs, please consult a qualified doctor for detailed treatment information, and do not take the drug yourself. We look forward to these discoveries bringing more ideas to people and inspiring people’s confidence in defeating the virus.
Coronavirus Statistics For 05 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 22,593 | 1,180,000 | 76,659 | 3,540,000 | 29.5% | 33.3% |
| Deaths | 1,252 | 68,934 | 3,978 | 250,977 | 31.5% | 27.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.75 | 21.31 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
U.S. Consumer Debt Payments And Credit Buffers On The Eve Of COVID-19
1Q2020 Report on Household Debt and Credit: Report Shows Minimal Effect Of Coronavirus
April 2020 ISM and Markit Services Surveys In Recession Territory
March 2020 Trade Worsened Due to Coronavirus
March 2020 CoreLogic Home Prices: Growth Rate Forecast to Decline Drastically by March 2021
Infographic Of The Day: The COVID-19 Impact On App Popularity
Where Reliance On Food Imports Is Highest
Coronavirus Shows Key Workers Need Better Pay And Protection – Here’s What Has To Change
Could Sell In May Be A Good Strategy This Year?
Gas Prices Crater … But WHERE IS MY STIMULUS?
US Treasury Says It Will Borrow $3 Trillion In Q2
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- Is social distancing at 6 feet correct? Some are saying 4 meters (13 feet). And what is the correct social distance if one rides a bike?
- Will warm weather and higher humidity slow the coronavirus spread? Will September see another spike in cases? Next Winter may see more cases than seen previously.
- Should we decontaminate products (such as food) that are brought into the house?
- Does one develop immunity after recovering from coronavirus?
- Is COVID-19 mutating? How will this impact the ability to create immunization or even immunity?
- Are ventilators damaging patients – should oxygen be used instead?
- The U.S. outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan after the U.S. shut down its testing due to containment issues.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic.
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