Written by Steven Hansen
I live in an area still locked down. What is interesting to me is that we have been locked down over a month and yet the rate of infection and deaths seem little changed. Deaths from coronavirus remain stubbornly high. Following is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines on coronavirus which include topics on treatments and more information on the experimental antiviral drug for Covid-19.
We were promised that a lockdown would bend the curve. Yet if you look at not only the daily cases for the U.S. but also the new cases at state levels – there is no observable “bending”. The current incubation period (time from exposure of the virus to the development of symptoms) is believed to be 2 to 14 days. A lockdown of just 14 days should bend the cure. This is not logical. I guess we can be thankful that the rate of infection is not rising.
The experts may know more than me but their expertise is not working in the U.S. when it comes down to bending the curve. And states and cities are reopening – if there is no bending, there is no statistical basis to reopen.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
What We Know About Remdesivir, the Antiviral Drug Dr. Fauci Says ‘Can Block This Virus’ – vice
… An antiviral drug remdesivir, which was developed in 2015 to treat Ebola, appears to be helping coronavirus patients get better. The National Institutes of Health ran a study in which the drug was given to more than 1,000 patients sick with COVID-19 and found it shortened patients’ illnesses by about 31%, according to preliminary data released Wednesday.
… “This drug happens to be blocking an enzyme that the virus uses,” Fauci added. He said the evidence was “clear-cut” that the drug is significantly improving patients’ outcomes. The drug didn’t perform well in trials on Ebola patients, however.
… The company [Gilead Sciences] also released preliminary results of its own study, which showed that the drug helped COVID-19 patients, and that the efficacy of the drug was the same for patients who took the drug for five days as it was for patients who took it for ten.
But another study was less hopeful. The drug was given to severely ill patients in China, and seemed not to help much. The urgency of the coronavirus has led to rushed research being published — there weren’t enough severely ill patients in China to enroll in the study for the researchers to consider it complete.
Gilead plans to give away the first 1.5 million doses of remdesivir, if the F.D.A. grants approval. – The New York Times
Gilead Sciences plans to give away the first 1.5 million doses of remdesivir, an antiviral drug shown to modestly reduce recovery time in virus patients, if the Food and Drug Administration grants emergency approval.
Gilead could charge for the drug under a so-called emergency use authorization from the agency. But at least at the beginning, Gilead will provide the drug free of charge, Dan O’Day, the company’s chief executive, said in an interview on Thursday.
The company started planning in January to manufacture remdesivir in large quantities, well before large federal trial of the antiviral drug began at the end of February.
The results, announced by administration officials on Wednesday, showed that patients receiving the drug recovered in 11 days on average, compared to 15 days for patients receiving a placebo.
Pfizer aims for 10-20 million doses of coronavirus vaccine by end-2020 – Reuters
Pfizer aims to make 10-20 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine it is developing with Germany’s BioNtech by the end of 2020 for emergency use should it pass tests, the U.S. drugmaker’s head of vaccines said on Thursday.
The companies, whose project relies on messenger RNA technology never before used in an approved vaccine, have dosed the first humans in Germany and hope to begin a U.S. trial soon, pending regulators’ blessing.
Pfizer, BioNtech and other companies are racing to develop a vaccine, since there are currently no approved treatments and only mixed results of medicines under study against the virus.
Britain’s AstraZeneca said on Thursday it had joined with the University of Oxford on a vaccine project also being tested in volunteers.
Most US states will begin reopening within days – CNN
At least 31 states will partially reopen over the next few days as a patchwork of coronavirus response plans that vary from one state to the next goes into effect.
Among the different approaches:
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom is ordering beaches and parks closed and said reopening of schools and businesses is still “weeks away.”
- Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, meanwhile, extended the stay-at-home order until May 15.
- Florida has two different approaches within its borders: Restaurants and retail shops can let customers inside, at reduced capacity, starting Monday — but not in South Florida’s populous Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, home to 6 million people.
- West Virginia’s dentists can go back to work Thursday; its restaurants, churches and services like salons must wait until Monday.
- Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who allowed some businesses to open Friday, will ease social distancing restrictions Thursday, his spokeswoman told CNN.
COVID-19’s blow to consumer confidence is universal, but recovery will vary by region – The Conference Board
The COVID-19 crisis has driven down consumer confidence around the world. But three critical dimensions of the crisis will shape confidence in the months ahead: (1) increases in new cases and deaths due to the virus; (2) the impact on jobs and household incomes; and (3) government policy to mitigate its effects. Experts at The Conference Board scored 21 countries along these three dimensions to determine how fast consumer confidence would rebound. China and South Korea, countries well past the first wave of cases, successfully implemented strict containment policies and have begun to open up their economies again; confidence there will likely rebound fairly quickly. Elsewhere in Asia, Indonesia and India struggle to provide an effective policy response and may recover more slowly, though cases have been limited so far. In Europe, there’s great diversity in the policy response: Germany’s proactive containment measures, among the most robust in Europe, may support a swift recovery. But in the UK, a delayed policy response may result in greater job and income losses, leading to a longer period of low confidence. In the Gulf region and Canada, and to some extent in the US and Mexico, the decline in oil prices adds to the pressure on consumer confidence. The speed and dynamics of the recovery in consumer confidence will vary, so companies should carefully monitor consumer behavior by region and adapt.
No income and number 88,000 in line: This is what it’s like to be unemployed in America – USA Today
The Economic Policy Institute found that for every 10 people who said they successfully filed a jobless claim in the previous four weeks, three to four more attempted to apply but couldn’t get through the system to file a claim.
Meanwhile, another two people didn’t even bother to try because it seemed too hard.
Overall, the Institute estimates that roughly 8.9 to 13.9 million more Americans could have applied for benefits so far had the process been less cumbersome.
Philadelphia Fed Suspends the Release of the State Leading Indexes – Philadelphia Federal Reserve
Given the sudden, extreme impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on initial unemployment claims in recent weeks, our researchers’ standard approach for estimating the six-month change in coincident indexes is not appropriate. Therefore, the Philadelphia Fed has suspended the release of the state leading indexes indefinitely.
Job Cut Announcements Hit Highest Single Month Total on Record – Challenger, Gray & Christmas
From mid-March to April 25, US employers have announced plans to cut 542,879 job cuts due to COVID-19, the vast majority in the Entertainment/Leisure sector which includes restaurants, bars, hotels, and amusement parks.
COVID Cuts Through April 25
Industry March April Grand Total Entertainment/Leisure 83,234 248,662 331,896 Transportation 4,773 19,275 24,048 Non-Profit 5,314 14,857 20,171 Automotive 11,991 7,775 19,766 Aerospace/Defense 2,634 17,026 19,660 Industrial Goods 4,933 13,881 18,814 Retail 2,949 15,590 18,539 Services 8,580 8,986 17,566 Government 26 15,545 15,571 Health Care/Products 1,132 11,546 12,678 Apparel 449 6,758 7,207 Real Estate 4,592 1,775 6,367 Technology 1,737 3,986 5,723 Media 3,054 2,000 5,054 Energy 3,629 580 4,209 Education 338 3,302 3,640 Consumer Products 772 2,826 3,598 Food 1,149 1,909 3,058 Mining 2,185 2,185 Warehousing 355 954 1,309 Construction 177 1,047 1,224 Telecommunications 301 301 Financial 150 150 Fintech 118 118 Electronics 26 26 Legal 0 1 1 Pharmaceutical 0 0 Grand Total 141,844 401,035 542,879 “The next wave of job losses will come from companies that feel the impact of decreased consumer and business spending. As states attempt to reopen businesses at half capacity and people shun going out until they feel safe, many more businesses will find that financially, layoffs are the next step in survival,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior VP of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Federal Reserve Board announces it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program – Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program. As part of its broad effort to support the economy, the Federal Reserve developed the Main Street Lending Program to help credit flow to small and medium-sized businesses that were in sound financial condition before the pandemic.
When the initial terms of Main Street were announced, the Board indicated that, because the financial needs of businesses vary widely, it was seeking feedback from the public on potential refinements. More than 2,200 letters from individuals, businesses, and nonprofits were received. In response to the public input, the Board decided to expand the loan options available to businesses, and increased the maximum size of businesses that are eligible for support under the program. The changes include:
- Creating a third loan option, with increased risk sharing by lenders for borrowers with greater leverage;
- Lowering the minimum loan size for certain loans to $500,000; and
- Expanding the pool of businesses eligible to borrow.
Under the new loan option, lenders would retain a 15 percent share on loans that when added to existing debt do not exceed six times a borrower’s income, adjusted for interest payments, taxes, and depreciation and other appropriate adjustments. This compares to the existing loan options where lenders retain a 5 percent share on loans, but have different features. Under all of the loan options, lenders will be able to apply their industry-specific expertise and underwriting standards to best measure a borrower’s income. In total, three loan options—termed new, priority, and expanded—will be available for businesses. The chart below summarizes the different loan options.
Additionally, businesses with up to 15,000 employees or up to $5 billion in annual revenue are now eligible, compared to the initial program terms, which were for companies with up to 10,000 employees and $2.5 billion in revenue. The minimum loan size for two of the options was also lowered to $500,000 from $1 million. With the changes, the program will now offer more options to a wider set of eligible small and medium-size businesses.
The Board recognizes the critical role that nonprofit organizations play throughout the economy and is evaluating a separate approach to meet their unique needs.
The Main Street Lending Program was established under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, with approval of the Treasury Secretary. The Treasury will provide $75 billion for the program using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act. Frequently asked questions and answers for lenders and borrowers are also available. A start date for the program will be announced soon.
Main Street Lending Program Loan Options New Loans Priority Loans Expanded Loans Term 4 years 4 years 4 years Minimum Loan Size $500,000 $500,000 $10,000,000 Maximum Loan Size Lesser of $25M or 4x 2019 adjusted EBITDA Lesser of $25M or 6x 2019 adjusted EBITDA Lesser of $200M, 35% of outstanding and undrawn available debt, or 6x 2019 adjusted EBITDA Risk Retention 5% 15% 5% Payment (year one deferred for all) Years 2-4: 33.33% each year Years 2-4: 15%, 15%, 70% Years 2-4: 15%, 15%, 70% Rate LIBOR + 3% LIBOR + 3% LIBOR + 3%
Tracking Weekly Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Outbreak – Philadelphia Federal Reserve
Kawasaki-like disease: Coronavirus risks for children – BBC
An urgent alert was issued to GPs after several children presented with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease – a potentially fatal syndrome that affects blood vessels – including a high temperature, low blood pressure, a rash and difficulty breathing.
The syndrome appeared to be similar to the over-active immune response, known as a “cytokine storm”, seen in adults with Covid-19. In many cases it seems it’s the body’s immune response rather than the virus itself that proves life-threatening.
But these symptoms identified in children are rare events – known to affect about 20 children so far – and not all of them tested positive for Covid-19.
South Korea Reports No New Domestic Coronavirus Cases – NPR
South Korea, which waged an early battle against COVID-19 after the disease emerged from China, said on Thursday that it had no new domestic cases for the first time since a surge nearly 10 weeks ago.
The country experienced its first case on Jan. 20, but didn’t see infections ramp up until mid-February. They peaked on Feb. 29 with 909 daily cases and have been trending down ever since.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported just four new coronavirus infections on Thursday, all of them cases that came from outside the country. That brings the total number in the country to 10,765, with 247 deaths.
Thursday’s milestone is seen as a victory for South Korea, which has received international praise for its handling of the pandemic, with its heavy reliance on widespread testing, isolation and contact tracing to control COVID-19.
Coronavirus in Russia: The Latest News – The Moscow Times
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has been diagnosed with coronavirus, he said during a video meeting with President Vladimir Putin broadcast on the state-run Rossiya 24 television channel Thursday
Russia confirmed 7,099 new coronavirus infections Thursday, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 106,498 and marking a new one-day record increase. Russia is now the eighth most-affected country in terms of infections, having surpassed China and Iran this week.
President Vladimir Putin has extended the national “non-working” month through May 11 as Russia continued to see sharp daily rises in new coronavirus infections in recent days. Moscow’s coronavirus lockdown has also been extended until May 11.
Denmark says partial reopening has not accelerated virus spread – The Guardian
Authorities in Denmark, became the first country outside of Asia to ease lockdown measures a fortnight ago, said the spread of Covid-19 had not accelerated. Day care centres and schools began reopening in the Nordic country two weeks ago, followed by hairdressers and other small businesses on 20 April. The move came after the number of infections and deaths slowed.
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 27,326 | 1,040,000 | 76,391 | 3,130,000 | 35.8% | 33.2% |
Deaths | 2,611 | 60,966 | 10,036 | 227,051 | 26.0% | 26.9% |
Mortality Rate | 9.6% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 7.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.61 | 17.51 |
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Economic Forecast Now In Coronavirus Contraction
Why U.S. Hospitals Are In Critical Condition
April 2020 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Drops Deeper In Contraction
March 2020 Headline Personal Expenditures Even Worse Than Expected
25 April 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 3,839,000 This Week
Bottom Half Of Households: Ten Years To Recover
Covid-19: Have We Over-Reacted?
Why ‘There’s No Such Thing As Society’ Should Not Be Regarded With Moral Revulsion
U.S. Economy Sees Sharp Downturn Amid COVID-19 Crisis
What Is The President’s Responsibility For The Coronavirus Epidemic In The U.S.?
A Wider Societal Divide May Be Opening In The U.S.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- Is social distancing at 6 feet correct? Some are saying 4 meters (13 feet). And what is the correct social distance if one rides a bike?
- Will warm weather and higher humidity slow the coronavirus spread? Will September see another spike in cases? Next Winter may see more cases than seen previously.
- Should we decontaminate products (such as food) that are brought into the house?
- Does one develop immunity after recovering from coronavirus?
- Is COVID-19 mutating? How will this impact the ability to create immunization or even immunity?
- Are ventilators damaging patients – should oxygen be used instead?
- The U.S. outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan after the U.S. shut down its testing due to containment issues.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic.
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