from CoreLogic
The Loan Performance Insights Report shows that nationally, 3.9% of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in November 2019, representing a 0.1 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with November 2018, when it was 4%.
As of November 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate – which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4%, unchanged from November 2018. The November 2019 foreclosure inventory rate tied the prior 12 months as the lowest for any month since at least January 1999.
Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 2% in November 2019, up from 1.9% in November 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in October 2019 was 0.6%, down from 0.7% in November 2018. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in November 2019, down from 1.5% in November 2018. The serious delinquency rate has remained consistent since April 2019.
Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 1% in November 2019, up from 0.8% in November 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2%, while it peaked at 2% in November 2008.
“Natural disasters often cause spikes in mortgage delinquencies that gradually recede,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “The CoreLogic 2019 Natural Hazard Report revealed that delinquency rates in Panama City, Florida, nearly tripled in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Michael in October 2018, but fell back to trend levels by late 2019.”
No states posted a year-over-year increase in the overall delinquency rate in November 2019. The states that logged the largest annual decreases included North Carolina (down 0.7 percentage points) and District of Columbia (down 0.5 percentage points). Four other states followed with annual decreases of 0.4 percentage points.
In November 2019, 50 metropolitan areas recorded at least a small annual increase in the overall delinquency rate. The largest annual increases were in the following metros: Pine Bluff, Arkansas (up 1.4 percentage points); Enid, Oklahoma (up 0.9 percentage points); Dalton, Georgia (up 0.6 percentage points); and Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.5 percentage points).
While the nation’s serious delinquency rate remains at a 14-year low, 23 metropolitan areas recorded small annual increases in their serious delinquency rates. Enid, Oklahoma, logged the highest annual gain (up 0.4 percentage points), followed by Dubuque, Iowa (up 0.2 percentage points); Hanford-Corcoran, California (up 0.2 percentage points); Panama City, Florida (up 0.2 percentage points) and Salisbury, Maryland-Delaware (up 0.2 percentage points). The remaining 18 metro areas each logged an annual increase of 0.1 percentage points.
“Overall delinquency rates remain at 20-year lows spurred on by tight underwriting standards following the onset of the Great Recession, a robust and accelerating economic cycle over the past five years and the increasing underlying health of the housing economy,” said Frank Martell, president, and CEO of CoreLogic. “In the Southeast, the 2018 hurricane season left higher overall delinquency rates in its wake, but the region is finally on the mend. In the Midwest, we see a somewhat different picture. Of the 50 metro areas that experienced increases in overall delinquency rates in November, nearly half were in the Midwest. Still, as mortgage rates reach a three-year low, we could expect to see stabilization across markets heading into 2020.”
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For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/insights.
Methodology
The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through October 2019.
The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition, and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
Source: CoreLogic
The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany the first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Allyse Sanchez at [email protected]. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases, and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enable real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies, and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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