The Chicago Business Barometer slipped to 42.9 in January, the lowest level since December 2015. After two straight months of gains, the index fell further into contraction, with the three-month average falling to 45.9.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The Fed manufacturing surveys generally improve this month but still showing little growth – and the Chicago Fed went the other direction.
Expectations this month from Econoday were 47.8 to 49.3 (consensus 48.5). A number below 50 indicates contraction.
All five major components of the headline index saw a monthly decline, with Order Backlogs leading the way lower, followed by New Orders. Demand weakened in January, highlighted by New Orders falling 6.1 points to 41.5. Production cooled by 3.8 points to 42.7, the lowest level since July 2019. Order Backlogs slipped to a four-year low in January, showing the largest monthly fall in both points and percentage terms, leaving the index 10.1* points lower at 34.6. Since March 2019, the indicator has only recorded one reading above the 50-mark.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
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source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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