The Chicago Business Barometer rose 2.6 points in December, hitting a four-month high of 48.9.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The Fed manufacturing surveys were little changed this month showing little growth – and the Chicago Fed is consistent with the other surveys.
Expectations this month from Econoday were 45.1 to 50.0 (consensus 47.9). A number below 50 indicates contraction.
Business sentiment dropped by 1.2 points to 46.2 in Q4, marking the lowest quarterly reading since Q2 2009. The index was below the 50-mark for the second successive quarter. Among the main five categories, Supplier Deliveries and Production led the increase, rising to 55.4 and 47.2 respectively. Production gain 4.9 points to 47.2, hitting the highest level since August. However, demand slowed in December, indicated by a marginal decline to 49.1 in New Orders after November’s reading of 49.4. After dropping to an almost four-year low in October, Order Backlogs picked up in November and increased further in December, leaving the index at a threemonth high of 46.2. However, Order Backlogs saw the largest quarterly decline, falling to 41.4. Inventories remained in contraction for the fifth consecutive month in December. Nevertheless, the index strengthened by 4.4 points to 47.4.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
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source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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