Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their December manufacturing surveys – three are in expansion and two are in contraction.
Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Important subindices new orders modestly improved (and returned to expansion) and unfilled orders improving and but remaining in contraction. The survey is near the lowest level seen in over 3 years. This should be considered a modestly better report relative to last month.
The expectations from Econoday were -3.0 to +1.5 (consensus +1.0) for the general activity index and the reported value was 3.6. From the Dallas Fed:
Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory last month.
Most other measures of manufacturing activity also rebounded in December. The new orders index rose from -3.0 to 1.6. The growth rate of orders index moved up but remained in negative territory for a third consecutive month, coming in at -5.0. The capacity utilization index shot up 13 points to 7.8, and the shipments index rose from -4.5 to 3.0.
Perceptions of broader business conditions were mixed in December. The general business activity index remained slightly negative at -3.2, while the company outlook index inched up three points to 1.3. Both indexes have oscillated between positive (expansionary) and negative (contractionary) territory this year. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks receded 12 points to 5.6, its lowest reading since March.
Labor market measures suggested rising employment levels and slightly longer workweeks this month. The employment index rose from 0.9 to 6.2, indicative of a pickup in hiring. Eighteen percent of firms noted net hiring, while 12 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index rebounded to 2.6 after dipping into negative territory last month.
Input prices and wages rose in December, though upward pressure continued to ease, and selling prices were largely unchanged. The raw materials index declined three points to 14.5, while the wages and benefits index fell seven points to 14.6. The finished goods prices index edged down to 0.7.
Expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in December. The index of future general business activity was largely unchanged at 6.4, while the index of future company outlook edged down to 13.9. Most other indexes for future manufacturing pushed further into positive territory.
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z dallas_man.PNG
Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z richmond_man.PNG
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z kansas_man.PNG
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z philly fed1.PNG
New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z empire1.PNG
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:
z survey1.png
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>