December 2019 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Growth Contracts More

Of the four regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, two were in expansion and two in contraction

Market expectations from Econoday were -1 to +3 (consensus +1). The actual survey value was -5 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from −1 in November to −5 in December, weighed down by decreases in the already negative indexes for shipments and new orders, while the third component — employment — increased slightly. Manufacturers also reported weakness in local business conditions and capacity utilization, but they were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.

Many firms saw growth in employment and wages in December. However, respondents reported declines in the average workweek, as this index decreased to −15, its lowest reading since April 2009. Manufacturers continued to report difficulty finding workers with the necessary skills and expected that struggle to continue in the next six months.

The growth rate of prices paid by manufacturing firms rose in December, while that of prices received fell. Respondents expected growth of both prices paid and prices received to slow in the near future.

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic