Of the five regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, three were in expansion and two in contraction
Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing
The important Richmond Fed subcategories (new orders and unfilled orders) declined with both now in contraction. This survey was much worse than last month.
Market expectations from Econoday were +2 to +6 (consensus +6). The actual survey value was -1 [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in November, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 8 in October to −1 in November, weighed down by negative readings for shipments and new orders, while the third component — employment — declined but remained positive. Manufacturing firms also reported a drop in backlog of orders, but the indicator for local business conditions held fairly steady. Survey respondents were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.
Survey results suggested modest employment growth and rising wages in November. However, firms continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills. Respondents expected this struggle to persist and employment and wages to continue to grow in the near future.
The average growth rate of prices paid by manufacturing firms slowed in November, while that of prices received accelerated slightly, with the result that growth of prices received outpaced that of prices paid for the first time since September 2017. However, firms expected growth of prices paid to rise and prices received to fall in the next six months.
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z richmond_man.PNG
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z kansas_man.PNG
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z dallas_man.PNG
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z philly fed1.PNG
New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z empire1.PNG
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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