Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and barely remains in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
In essence, there is very little growth forecast in the business cycle six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Falls
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 144.4 while the growth rate slipped to 0.4%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:
– CNBC talks with ECRI’s Achuthan “Consumer Spending Growth Slowing“
– CNBC interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “ISM Mfg, Jobs & Consumer“
– Bloomberg discussion with ECRI’s Achuthan “The U.S. Jobs Slowdown is Important“
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and ECRI on LinkedIn.
U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The August economy’s rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth declined.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August economy’s rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth slowed.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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