August 2019 CoreLogic Home Prices Rate Of Growth Marginally Accelerates

Written by Steven Hansen

CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.6% from August 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.4% in August 2019.

…. The 3.6% increase in annual home price growth this August marked a big slowdown from a year earlier ….

Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic stated:

The 3.6% increase in annual home price growth this August marked a big slowdown from a year earlier when the U.S. index was up 5.5%. While the slowdown in appreciation occurred across the country at all price points, it was most pronounced at the lower end of the market. Prices for the lowest-priced homes increased by 5.5%, compared with August 2018, when prices increased by 8.4%. This moderation in home-price growth should be welcome news to entry-level buyers.

HPI Case-Shiller Trends – Year-over-Year Growth

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According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 37% of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of August 2019. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. As of August 2019, 23% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 40% were at value.

When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40% were overvalued, 16% were undervalued and 44% were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% above the long-term, sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.

During the second quarter of 2019, CoreLogic, together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment among millennials. The survey found that approximately 75% of millennial renters indicate they will likely purchase a home in the future. However, despite a desire from the entire millennial cohort to purchase a home, there is a clear difference between older and younger millennials’ living situation preferences. Generally, older millennials (30-38) aspire to own a single, stand-alone home in the suburbs that is somewhat secluded. Meanwhile, younger millennials (21-29) lean towards modern apartment rentals in urban settings, with 55% of younger millennials saying they prefer to also live in lively neighborhoods. Still, 79% of younger millennials are confident that they will be homeowners in the future.

Frank Martell, president, and CEO of CoreLogic stated:

The millennial cohort has now entered the housing market in force and is already driving major changes in buying and selling patterns. Almost half of the millennials over 30 years old have bought a house in the last three years. These folks are increasingly looking to move out of urban centers in favor of the suburbs, which offers more privacy and a greener environment,”. Perhaps most significantly, almost 80% of all millennials are confident they will become homeowners in the future.

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Caveats Relating to Home Price Indices

There is no such thing as an “accurate” home price index. CoreLogic HPI is a repeat sales type index which should not be skewed by changes in the mix of home sales. For more information, please read: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2014/house-price-indexes.pdf

From CoreLogic:

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price-as a function of real disposable income per capita-with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers-“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic

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