Of the five regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, four are in expansion and one in contraction
Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing
The important Richmond Fed subcategories (new orders and unfilled orders) improved with new orders barely in expansion and unfilled orders in contraction. This survey was modestly better than last month.
Market expectations from Econoday were -5 to -1 (consensus -4). The actual survey value was 1 [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from −12 in July to 1 in August, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. However, the third component, employment, fell. Firms reported increasing capital expenditures and inventories, but the measure of local business conditions was slightly negative. Manufacturers were, however, optimistic that conditions would improve in the next six months.
Survey results suggested that many firms saw employment decline while the average workweek increased in August. Respondents reported persistent wage growth but still struggled to find workers with the necessary skills. They expected this struggle to continue, along with wage growth, in the coming months.
The growth rates of both prices paid and prices received by survey participants fell in August. Prices paid continued to outpace prices received, a pattern firms expected to continue in the near future.
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z richmond_man.PNG
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z kansas_man.PNG
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z dallas_man.PNG
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z philly fed1.PNG
New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z empire1.PNG
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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