Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved but remains in contraction. ECRI also released their inflation index.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
In essence, there is no growth forecast in the business cycle six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 145.3 while the growth rate increased to -1.9%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 21 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:
– Read ECRI’s “De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War“
– CNBC Interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?“
– Bloomberg Interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus“
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.
U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
ECRI produces a monthly future inflation index which leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. The June index (released in July) shows deflation pressure (positive numbers show inflation pressure).
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth declined.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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