Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and has traveled deeper into contraction.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
In essence, there is no growth forecast in the business cycle six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 144.4 while its growth rate decreased to -1.9%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 21 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:
– Bloomberg Interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus“
– CNBC Interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “Inflation, the Fed and the FIG“
– MACRO Voices Interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More“
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.
U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
ECRI produces a monthly future inflation index which leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. The May index (released in June) shows growing deflation pressure (positive numbers show inflation pressure).
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth improved.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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