Of the five regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, all are in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing
The important Richmond Fed subcategories (new orders and unfilled orders) were no growth or in contraction. This survey was much weaker compared to last month despite improvement in the main index.
Market expectations from Econoday were 5 to 7 (consensus 6). The actual survey value was +5 [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 3 in April to 5 in May, as shipments and new orders had fairly flat reading and the third component, employment, remained positive. Firms reported growth in spending and positive overall business conditions and remained optimistic about growth in the coming months.
Survey results indicated that employment and wages grew in May, while the indicator for average workweek recovered from its negative April reading. However, firms continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills as this index dropped from −8 in April to −20 in May. Respondents expected this struggle to continue but to see further growth in employment and wages in the next six months.
The growth rates of both prices paid and prices received fell in May, as growth of prices paid continued to outpace growth of prices received. Firms expected a slight increase in both growth rates in the near future.
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z richmond_man.PNG
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z kansas_man.PNG
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z dallas_man.PNG
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z philly fed1.PNG
New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z empire1.PNG
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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