Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally improved and remains in expansion this week.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
In essence, there is little growth forecast six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 147.0 while the growth rate ticked up to 1.4%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 21 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:
– CNBC TV Interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “Market Optimism and the Hard Data“
– Read “Inflation Downturn Signals and Rate Cuts“
– Read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation “Probing Powell’s Patience“
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.
U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The February economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
ECRI produces a monthly future inflation index which leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. The March index (released in April) shows no inflation pressure (positive numbers show inflation pressure).
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy’s rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth insignificantly declined.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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