Written by Steven Hansen
Week 16 of 2019 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors rolling averages remain in contraction – and are little changed.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) contracted 6.7 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors was little changed at -4.8 %.
When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.
The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
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Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth was relatively strong until the beginning of 2019 – and now the year-to-date growth is now in contraction.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average change from the rolling average of one year ago | Trend Direction | |
| 4 week rolling average | -2.8 % | improving |
| 13 week rolling average | -3.6 % | slowing |
| 52 week rolling average | +1.2 % | slowing |
A summary for this week from the AAR:
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 526,141 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.4 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending April 20 were 262,011 carloads, down 0.9 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 264,130 containers and trailers, down 3.9 percent compared to 2018.
Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. They were coal, up 3,738 carloads, to 84,216; petroleum and petroleum products, up 3,536 carloads, to 12,889; and miscellaneous carloads, up 313 carloads, to 9,654. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2018 included nonmetallic minerals, down 3,814 carloads, to 35,562; metallic ores and metals, down 2,174 carloads, to 21,849; and motor vehicles and parts, down 1,707 carloads, to 16,403.
For the first 16 weeks of 2019, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,969,837 carloads, down 2.7 percent from the same point last year; and 4,266,729 intermodal units, down 1.0 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 16 weeks of 2019 was 8,236,566 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.8 percent compared to last year.
The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -0.9 % | -3.9 % | -2.4 % |
| — Ignoring coal, grain & petroleum | -6.7 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -2.7 % | -1.0 % | -1.8 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
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