The Chicago Business Barometer declined after last month’s improvement.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The Fed manufacturing surveys were little changed this month – and Chicago ISM declined
Expectations this month from Econoday were 55.0 to 64.1 (consensus 60.3) with the actual at 58.7. A number below 50 indicates contraction.
Shaily Mittal, Senior Economist at MNI Indicators said:
Although the barometer has comfortably remained above the 50- neutral level for more than two years now, survey evidence points to a slight slowdown since last year. The Fed’s break from monetary tightening amid global uncertainty and softer inflation is seen underpinning optimism in the business environment.
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 6 points to 58.7 in March from 64.7, partially offsetting last month’s gain. Looking at the three-month average provides a better guide this month to the underlying trend in the economy with activity a touch lower in Q1 than in Q4. The Barometer averaged 60.0 in Q1, down 3.5% on Q4 2018 and 3.3% on Q1 2018. The March fall was led by three of the five Barometer components, with Employment and Supplier Deliveries both increasing, albeit marginally.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
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source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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