Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 224 K to 230 K (consensus 225,000), and the Department of Labor reported 211,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 220,500 (reported last week as 225,000) to 217,250. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Note:
This week’s release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2014 forward, along with the resulting seasonally adjusted values for initial claims and continuing claims, have been revised.
This marks 207 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4-week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which history suggests a slowing economy. The unemployment rate is currently worse than one year ago.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 0.8 % lower (better than the 0.0 % higher for last week) than they were in this same week a year ago.
Claim levels are at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 221,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 4,500 from 225,000 to 220,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 16, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 16 was 1,756,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 7,000 from 1,750,000 to 1,743,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,751,250, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 17,000 from 1,772,500 to 1,755,500.
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