March 2019 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Growth Slowed

Of the four regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

The market expectations from Econoday was +10 to +15 (consensus +1). The actual survey value was +10 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in March, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 16 in February to 10 in March but remained in expansionary territory. The fall came from drops in both the shipments and new orders indexes, but the third component, employment, increased. Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the coming months.

Survey results indicated growth in both employment and wages in March. However, firms continued to struggle to find workers with the skills they needed. Respondents expected this struggle to persist in the near future but also anticipate continued growth in employment and wages.

The growth rate of prices paid by survey participants fell slightly in March, while growth of prices received remained fairly stable. While this reduced the gap between the two, growth of prices paid continued to outpace growth of prices received. Firms expected growth of both to slow in the next six months.

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic