Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved but remains in contraction.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 144.0, but it’s smoothed growth rate recovered to -4.3%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 21 countries and they can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:
– Bloomberg TV interview with ECRI’s Achuthan “Turning Points in Global Growth & Market Risk“
– Read ECRI’s “Colliding With the Economic Cycle – Again“
– Yahoo Finance TV interview with ECRI Achuthan “Cycles, The Fed & Recession Risk“
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The December index value (issued in January) shows the rate of economic growth declined.
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures further subsided in December.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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