Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was unchanged but remains in contraction. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 144.7, while WLI growth remained unchanged at -3.9%.
The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns.
For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has been made public:
– read ECRI’s latest op-ed “A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market“
– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on “Global Slowdown,Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink” on CNBC
– read ECRI’s “Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck”
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:
Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.
For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures subsided in November.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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