Written by Steven Hansen
Week 50 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors were in contraction this week.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
The overall rate of rail growth in 2018 has slowly decelerating.
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal, grain and petroleum are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it contracted 1.6 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors was improved from -2.6 % to -1.5 %.
Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth has been relatively strong and grew 6.2 % YoY but the rate of growth trend has been slowing.
The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
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This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +1.2 % | accelerating | accelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +1.2 % | accelerating | decelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +2.2 % | accelerating | decelerating |
A summary for this week from the AAR:
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 568,941 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.9 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending December 15 were 267,534 carloads, up 1.4 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 301,407 containers and trailers, up 6.2 percent compared to 2017.
Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included coal, up 3,262 carloads, to 91,218; petroleum and petroleum products, up 2,897 carloads, to 13,551; and metallic ores and metals, up 820 carloads, to 23,929. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 included nonmetallic minerals, down 2,078 carloads, to 30,549; grain, down 1,030 carloads, to 22,550; and motor vehicles and parts, down 340 carloads, to 17,304.
For the first 50 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,153,197 carloads, up 1.7 percent from the same point last year; and 13,981,365 intermodal units, up 5.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 50 weeks of 2018 was 27,134,562 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.6 percent compared to last year.
The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +1.4 % | +6.2 % | +3.9 % |
| — Ignoring coal, grain & petroleum | -1.6 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +1.7 % | +5.5 % | +3.6 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
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