30 November 2018 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Index Modestly Slips Further Into Contraction

Written by Steven Hansen

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and slightly moved deeper into contraction. ECRI also released their inflation index today.

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 145.2, while WLI growth edges down to -4.1%.

The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns.

For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has made public:

– read ECRI’s “Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide“

– read ECRI’s “Construction Crumbling”

– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discuss equity correction risk on CNBC

For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:

Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The September index value (issued in October) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures subsided in November.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September economy’s rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth marginally improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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