ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. ECRI released their inflation index this week also.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Even with the general downward trend in this index over the last 6 months, the forecast is for modest growth six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) stayed virtually unchanged at 148.7, while the WLI growth rate fell to 2.6% from 3.0%.
For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:
– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan talk with CNBC
– read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural”
For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:
Click here to review ECRI’s track record, including client report excerpts.
For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The April index value (issued in May) shows the rate of economic growth improved.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures again increased in May.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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