Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released for May, all were in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of Kansas City Fed Manufacturing
Kansas City Fed manufacturing has been one of the more stable districts and their index significantly improved. Note that the key internals were strongly in expansion.
The market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday were 20 to 25 (consensus 22). The reported value was 29. Any value below zero is contraction.
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand at a rapid pace, and optimism remained high for future activity. “Our composite index rose to another record high in May, with continued optimism for future growth,” said Wilkerson. “Prices indexes were stable but remained at high levels.”
Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand rapidly, with the composite index at its highest level in survey history for the second consecutive month. In addition, contacts remained optimistic about future activity. Price indexes were little changed, but generally remained at high levels. The month-over-month composite index was 29 in May, up from readings of 26 in April and 17 in March (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory activity increased at both durable and nondurable goods plants, particularly at nondurable plants producing chemicals and food. Most month-over-month indexes continued to rise. The production index jumped from 33 to 41, and the shipments, new orders, and new orders for exports indexes also moved higher. In contrast, the order backlog and employment indexes eased somewhat. The raw materials inventory index edged up from 17 to 19, and the finished goods inventory index also increased
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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