11 May 2018: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Marginally Slips

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. ECRI also released their lagging and coincident indices this week.

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 148.7 from 149.3, while WLI growth edged down to 4.3% from 4.5%.

For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:

– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan Bloomberg interview

– read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural“

For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The April index value (issued in May) shows the rate of economic growth improved.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures marginally declined in April.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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