The Chicago Business Barometer insignificantly improved and remains firmly in positive territory.
Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI
The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys – and generallly aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.
Expections this month from Bloomberg / Econoday were 55.5 to 60.0 (consensus 57.8) with the actual at 57.6. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,
While the MNI Chicago Business Barometer ended a threemonth falling streak in April, supply constraints faced by firms intensified and continue to weigh on activity. Longer delivery times are proving attritive, while dearer materials bite further into margins. Uncertainty among suppliers appears to be assisting the upward march in prices, but the majority of firms were optimistic any negative impact stemming directly from recently implemented tariffs would be minimal.
Business activity continued to rise at a solid pace in April, with growth in firms’ operations up for the first time this year, albeit marginally. Three of the five Barometer components fell on the month, with only Production and Supplier Deliveries finding room to grow. While output levels rose in April, driving the upward move in the Barometer, order book growth continued to weaken. The Production indicator ended a run of three consecutive falls, rising to the highest level since February. The New Orders indicator, on the other hand, extended the downward momentum shown since the turn of the year, hitting a 15-month low in April. The two indicators account for exactly 60 percent of the headline Barometer and sit 2.2% and 10.4% below their respective year-ago levels.
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The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) – there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.
source and read the full report: Chicago PMI
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