ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Even with the general downward trend in this index, the forecast is for modest growth six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 150.4 from 148.9, while WLI growth ticked up to 3.5% from 3.2%.
For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:
– watch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan latest Bloomberg interview
– read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural”
For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:
Click here to review ECRI’s track record, including client report excerpts.
For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The March index value (issued in April) shows the rate of economic growth was little changed.
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures marginally declined in March.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March economy’s rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth marginally improved.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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