ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating modest growth six months from today.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 147.3 as WLI growth edged up to 2.9% from 2.6%.
For more on the cyclical outlook, please see insights below that includes other forward-looking ECRI data that we’ve made public:
– download ECRI’s “China Data Disappoints, As Expected”
– read ECRI’s “Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn”
– read ECRI’s “Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off”
For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:
Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator
RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing different trends.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The October index value (issued in November) shows the rate of economic growth improved.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.
z ecri_infl.PNG
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The October economy’s rate of growth (released in November) showed the rate of growth slowed.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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