25 August 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Continues to Decline

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slips to 143.9 from 144.1. The WLI growth rate falls to a 73-week low of 1.9%, from 2.3% last week.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

– see @businesscycle’s latest tweet on today’s jobs report

– read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji’s recent op-ed on Bloomberg

– read ECRI’s “Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction“

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The July index value (issued in August) shows the rate of economic growth insignificantly improved.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 111.5 from 111.7 in June, according to data released
Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“The USFIG dipped in July, further distancing itself from last fall’s cyclical peak,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
“Thus, underlying inflation pressures are clearly easing.”

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July economy’s rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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