21 July 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Marginally Ticks Up Again

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 144.2 from 144.7, as its growth rate ticks up from 2.6% to 2.8%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

– read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji’s article on Bloomberg.

– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Reuters.

– ECRI’s presentation ‘Turning Points: The Long and Short of It‘ at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows the rate of economic growth insignificantly declined.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

Future Inflation Gauge Edges Up in June

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.6 from 111.3 in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“The USFIG edged up in June after having dropped noticeably in May,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still simmering, have come off the boil.”

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June economy’s rate of growth (released in July) showed the rate of growth slowed.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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