ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth trend slowing. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. WLI Edges Down
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edges down to 144.1 from 144.5. The growth rate ticks up to 5.1% from 5.0%.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
– read ECRI’s “International Inflation Cycles Sync Up“.
– read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji’s article on Bloomberg.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator
RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The April index value (issued in May) shows the rate of economic growth improved.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. FIG Remains Elevated
U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 113.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“The USFIG was flat in April, having stayed since mid-2016 around its highest readings since 2008,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “In other words, underlying inflation pressures are still heightened.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March economy’s rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth unchanged..
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
