ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 50th week – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation index.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth slowing or flat. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. WLI Edged Down
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged down to 144.9 from 145.4. The growth rate decreased to 9.5% from 10.2%.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s current interview on MSNBC.
– read Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Elle.
– listen to Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Finanacial Sense.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator
RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.
Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The January index value (issued in February) shows the rate of economic growth unchanged.
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge increased to 113.4 from a 113.0 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“The USFIG inched up further in February, staying in a cyclical upswing,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain in a rising trend.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January economy’s rate of growth (released in February) showed the rate of growth declined..
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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