Week 7 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, rail over the last 6 months been declining around 5% – but this week shows +1.8 % (meaning that the predicitive economic elements improved year-over-year).
The rolling averages improved – but that is primarily due to coal and grain.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +5.1 % | unchanged | decelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +3.7 % | decelerating | accelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | -4.1 % | accelerating | accelerating |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending February 18, 2017.
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 531,123 carloads and intermodal units, up 6.8 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending February 18 were 263,620 carloads, up 7.6 percent compared with the same week in 2016, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 267,503 containers and trailers, up 6 percent compared to 2016.
Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2016. They included coal, up 18.6 percent to 90,927 carloads; nonmetallic minerals, up 11.1 percent to 33,732 carloads; and miscellaneous carloads, up 10.6 percent to 9,292 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2016 were motor vehicles and parts, down 10.3 percent to 17,590 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 3.7 percent to 9,878 carloads; and forest products, down 3.2 percent to 10,113 carloads.
For the first 7 weeks of 2017, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 1,783,857 carloads, up 5 percent from the same point last year; and 1,824,812 intermodal units, up 0.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 7 weeks of 2017 was 3,608,669 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 2.7 percent compared to last year.
Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week the EIA says coal production is 20.8 % higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2016.
The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +7.6 % | +6.0 % | +6.8 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | +1.8 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +5.0 % | +0.5 % | -+2.7 % |
[click on graph below to enlarge]
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For the week ended February 18, 2017
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 16.8 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 1.8% higher than last week’s estimate and 20.8% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2016
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.7 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 10.1 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 112.6 mmst, 16.8% higher than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2016
Coal production from EIA.gov
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![[click on graph below to enlarge]](/images/z%20rail1.png?v=36){kind=link}