Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 250 K to 265 K (consensus 262,000), and the Department of Labor reported 265,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 263,750 (reported last week as 263,750) to 263,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
The trend of the 4 week moving average improved this week. This marks 95 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 5.1 % lower (improvement from the 3.8 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2015.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line). 2015 (violet line), 2016 (light blue)
Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending December 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 263,750. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. This marks 95 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending December 17, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 17 was 2,102,000, an increase of 63,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 3,000 from 2,036,000 to 2,039,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,042,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 2,037,000 to 2,037,750.
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