ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – declined marginally and remains in negative territory. This index now spent 24 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released their lagging index this week.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. WLI Ticks Up
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 130.2 from 130.0. The growth rate decreases to -2.2% from -2.0%.
To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The December update (reported in January) shows the rate of economic growth has slowed.
U.S. Coincident Index:
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Inflation Grows
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.3 from a downwardly revised 101.6 reading in November, first reported as 102.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The December’s economy’s rate of growth (released in January) showed the rate of growth was flat.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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