ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – declined and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory – and now is in its 23rd week in negative territory. ECRI also released their coincident index this week.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 130.2 from 130.9. The growth rate edges down to -1.9% from -1.5%.
To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Real Vision.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The December update (reported in January) shows the rate of economic growth has slowed.
U.S. Coincident Index:
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Inflation Grows
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.3 from a downwardly revised 101.6 reading in November, first reported as 102.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November’s economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth was flat.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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