Truck shipments were weak in 2015. One index is still in expansion year-over-year in December, whilst the other is in contraction.
ATA Trucking
The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index improved 1.0 % in December, following a decrease of 0.9 % during November.In December, the index equaled 135.6 (2000=100), up from 134.3 in November, and 0.1% below the all-time high of 135.8 reached in January 2015.
From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
Tonnage ended 2015 on a strong note, but it was not strong for the year as a whole. With year-over-year gains averaging just 1.2% over the last four months, there was a clear deceleration in truck tonnage.
At the expense of sounding like a broken record, I remain concerned about the high level of inventories throughout the supply chain. The total business inventory-to-sales record is at the highest level in over a decade, excluding the Great Recession period. This will have a negative impact on truck freight volumes over the next few months at least. And, this inventory cycle is overriding any strength from consumer spending and housing at the moment.
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Compared with one year ago, seasonally adjusted tonnage increased 1.1 %.
Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry improved month-over-month (red line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly.
This data series is not transparent and therefore cannot be relied on. Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series (although they report the unadjusted value each month – but do not report revisions to this data) where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. The data is apparently subject to significant backward revision. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.
source: ATA
Trucking Conditions Index for November Signals Anticipated Capacity Concerns by Second Half 2016
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) measure for November jumped by more than three points to a reading of 8.64, a potential reflection of the improvements expected for truckers in 2016. FTR expects the worry among shippers about tight capacity to grow in the second half of the year, which will strengthen the carrier environment. However, downside risks for carriers could turn this around if freight fails to grow as expected because of weak industrial output.
source: http://www.ftrintel.com/news/latest-tci/index.php
CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT
Both the number of shipments and freight transportation expenditures continued their downward slide in December, falling 4.9 and 2.7 percent respectively. The declines are not unusual for December, but they capped off a second quarter of decline. In retrospect, 2015 did not even begin to reach the heights we reached in 2014. By the end of 2015, both shipment volume and expenditures fell back to 2013 levels. Expenditures for freight transportation were 5.2 percent lower than at the end of 2014 and shipment volume was down 3.7 percent from the same period.
Source: http://www.cassinfo.com/Transportation-Expense-Management/Supply-Chain-Analysis/Cass-Freight-Index.aspx
Summary
At best, truck shipments are weak. At worst, they are contracting towards multi-year lows. Consider that online retailing is growing, and this is a contradictory sign.
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