ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – declined again marginally and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory – and now is in its 21st week in negative territory. Also released today was ECRI’s inflation gauge.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Down
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 130.1 from 130.7. The growth rate edged down to -1.4% from -1.0%.
To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Al Jazeera.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The November update (reported in December) shows the rate of economic growth has slowed. The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked down to 169.8 in November from 169.9. The USCI year-over-year growth rate slipped to 2.7%, a 21-month low.
U.S. Coincident Index:
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Inflation Grows
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.3 from a downwardly revised 101.6 reading in November, first reported as 102.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November’s economy’s rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth was flat.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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