Of the three regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, two show manufacturing expanding weakly and one is in contraction.
There was no expectations released by Bloomberg this month. The survey value was +6.0 actual [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Fifth District manufacturing activity grew modestly in June, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The volume of new orders picked up, while order backlogs increased. However, shipments remained flat in June. Manufacturing employment continued to rise at a modest pace, while average wages grew moderately. Prices of raw materials and prices of finished goods rose at a faster pace in June.
Manufacturing executives anticipated positive business conditions during the next six months. Manufacturers expected faster growth in shipments and in the volume of new orders. Additionally, producers expected order backlogs to grow more quickly and looked for increased capacity utilization. Survey participants anticipated unchanged vendor lead times.
Manufacturers expected faster growth in the number of employees and looked for average wages to accelerate in the six months ahead. They expected a modest rise in the length of the average workweek. In addition, producers expected faster growth in prices paid and in prices received during the next six months.
Current Activity
Manufacturing activity increased modestly this month, with the composite index moving to a reading of 6 from last month’s reading of 1. Shipments remained flat, while the index for new orders advanced nine points, reaching a reading of 11. Manufacturing hiring continued to grow at a modest pace this month. The indicator gained one point to finish at a reading of 4 in June.
Capacity utilization rose nearly on pace with last month. The index slipped one point to a reading of 6. Backlogs increased, moving the index to 6 from a reading of −10 a month ago. Vendor lead time lengthened slightly, with that index edging up one point to 7. Finished goods inventories rose more quickly than a month ago. The index gained 10 points to end at 31. However, raw materials inventories rose only slightly faster. That gauge moved up one point to 23.
Read entire source document from Richmond Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z philly fed1.PNG
New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:
z survey1.png
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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