ECRI’s WLI Growth Index was unchanged but has remained in negative territory for 18 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week and are shown below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 130.3 from 130.0. The growth rate virtually unchanged from the previous week at -4.3%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The January update (reported in February) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:
U.S. Coincident Index:
z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
z ecri_infl.PNG
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls
U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 102.5 from a revised December 104.0 reading, first reported as 104.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“Having peaked in the summer, the USFIG has been falling faster lately,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to fade.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January’s economy’s rate of growth (released in February) improved and shows moderate growth.
U.S. Lagging Index:
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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