Written by Gary
A 2nd wave of US virus cases will plunge the economy into a depression, top economist warns (SPY +0.2%). The stock market rally is actually signaling an “abnormal” economic recovery.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money | |
 | North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.10%, while the IPC is leading the Bovespa lower. They are down 0.58% and 0.13% respectively. |
What Is Moving the Markets
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
| Pandemic could rip 105 billion pound hole in small company financesBritain’s smaller companies could be saddled with up to 105 billion pounds ($129 billion) in “unsustainable” debt by March next year that will need recapitalising, a financial services body told the Bank of England on Monday. |
| Oklahoma oil regulators hear arguments on output cutsOklahoma’s energy regulators on Monday began hearing arguments from producers seeking to win state-support for setting limits on oil production to help stabilize prices. |
| Wizz Air tells UK: we need more detail on quarantineWizz Air needs more details on British plans to quarantine travellers before it can assess their impact after seeing strong demand for the routes it has started operating during the coronavirus crisis, its chief executive told Reuters. |
| KKR builds 5.2% stake in ProSieben, says company undervaluedPrivate equity investor KKR said on Monday it had acquired a stake of 5.2% in German broadcaster ProSiebenSat.1 Media , returning as an investor in the company it had backed from 2006 to 2014. |
| Global equities markets sink, bonds rise on fears of second wave of infectionsA jump in coronavirus cases in South Korea and Germany rattled investors and sent global equities markets lower on Monday, while safe-haven assets, including the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, edged higher. |
| Chinese investment in the U.S. drops to lowest level since global financial crisisChinese investment in the United States dropped to $5 billion in 2019, a slight decrease from a year earlier and the lowest level since the global financial crisis a decade ago, according to a new analysis by the U.S.-China Investment Project. |
| NBCUniversal, Sky expand ad-buying tool globallyComcast Corp units NBCUniversal and Sky said Monday that advertising across both of the media companies can now be purchased through the same tool, as the firms look to attract more global advertisers and weather the coronavirus pandemic. |
| BA owner says burning cash, quarantine plan will make it worseBritish Airways owner IAG has exhausted every avenue to shore up its finances and is burning through cash, its CEO said on Monday, as the aviation industry warned of the fresh damage it would suffer if Britain quarantines international arrivals. |
| As U.S. meat workers fall sick and supplies dwindle, exports to China soarU.S. President Donald Trump ordered meat processing plants to stay open to protect the nation’s food supply even as workers got sick and died. Yet the plants have increasingly been exporting to China while U.S. consumers face shortages, a Reuters analysis of government data showed. |
| COVID-19 Magical Thinking, US Style: Contact-Tracing Versus MasksCOVID-19 Magical Thinking, US Style: Contact-Tracing Versus Masks Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com, Since the US is a federal system with an Administration that refused to take coronavirus seriously early enough, and now seems determined to validate its original decision by doubling down on it, it is a bit simplistic to speak of a œcoronavirus response, since cities and states have been taking the lead and they’ve gone down different paths. Nevertheless, due to the decision by many governments, particularly in the South, to start relaxing restrictions, I’m coming across way too many rationalizations. And one of them is that officials can make things safe enough with approaches like contact tracing. Mind you, as you will see, the point is that contact tracing, or any information gathering, practiced on an insufficient scale and without programs to take disease containment steps using that data, is at best misguided, and at worst, intended to build false confidence. Put it another way: the enthusiasm for a gee-whiz, tech based approach with no real world back end doesn’t merely reflect a lack of operational capacity, a key point Lambert made yesterday. It reflects a grave decline in basic problem-solving and planning skills, as in how do you get from A to B. And there bizarrely is limited interest in the one thing that could be done easily and cheaply, which is getting tough about mask-wearing. On top of that, one measure that really could make a difference, mandatory mask wearing, isn’t required many places, and e … |
| ‘Seeking Immediate Liquidity’ – Overleveraged Airbnb Hosts Rush To Dump Homes, Warns Redfin CEO‘Seeking Immediate Liquidity’ – Overleveraged Airbnb Hosts Rush To Dump Homes, Warns Redfin CEO Our suspicions were correct in late March when we identified Airbnb overleveraged Superhosts as the next possible forced seller to hit real estate markets as their rental income collapsed due to coronavirus lockdowns. The slide in rental income is shown below as weekly Airbnb bookings have tumbled during the pandemic. |
| Cuomo Says ‘Low Risk’ Businesses In Central New York Will Reopen May 15: Live UpdatesCuomo Says ‘Low Risk’ Businesses In Central New York Will Reopen May 15: Live Updates Summary: Wuhan to test entire city after latest outbreak Cuomo says central NY on track to reopen Friday South Carolina reopens restaurants for ‘limited service’ Iowa Gov says she will do limited quarantine WHO says 500k could die from AIDS thanks to disruptions in antiviral distribution South Korea’s latest cluster swells to 80+; school reopenings delayed Wuhan reports first new cases since reopening Germany hits another reopening ‘speed bump Iran sees spike in infections, reimposes lockdown in one hot spot Disneyland Shanghai reopens UK officially switches from ‘Stay at Home’ to ‘Stay Alert’ Russia reports another record jump Tokyo accused of excluding 100 cases from official count Spain sees new cases drop to 2 month low Dozens of US states take more dramatic steps toward reopening *Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â *Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â * Update (1155ET): The big takeaway from Cuomo’s press briefing on Monday is that parts of Central New York State are only one metric away from reopening (and for the record, that metric isn’t ‘mass produce a successful vaccine’).
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| Rabobank: Stocks Go Up As Everything Is Going Down In FlamesRabobank: Stocks Go Up As Everything Is Going Down In Flames Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank It’s All Going to the Dogs (and Goats) Friday’s April US payrolls report showed 20.5 million jobs lost when in an ordinary downturn 200,000 might be considered bad; the drop in March alone was larger than that seen during the worst of the global financial crisis. In short, we face a global future of mass unemployment (now 14.7% in the US and 13% in Canada) on top of mass debt, both public and private. Last week the German Constitutional Court (GCC) ruled that it is superior to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), and that the ECB has three months to prove it is not exceeding its remit with its extraordinary monetary policy. Yesterday the President of the EU Commission von der Leyen threatened to sue Germany, stating the final word on EU law is always spoken by the ECJ. Guess which court ultimately hears the case? The ECJ. How is this going to play out if the GCC doesn’t back down? Very badly in the Eurozone periphery, to the benefit of Euroskeptics. How is it going to play out in Germany if the GCC is forced to back down? Badly in Germany, to the benefit of Euroskeptics. Given the ECJ won’t back down and the ECB has said it will ignore the GCC, and the GCC is not likely to blink either, we seem set for an institutional crisis over the scope and shape of the Eurozone financial market ” albeit one that rumbles on rather than erupting immediately. US Vice-President Mike Pence, titular head of the US virus task force, is self-isolating after figures close to the White House were diagn … |
| Indian IT biggies are not hiring as they used to, numbers showIndian IT biggies are not hiring as they used to, numbers showIndia’s top five IT services firms added 25% fewer employees in fiscal year 2019-20. |
| 3 deals in a row help RIL reclaim m-cap crown3 deals in a row help RIL reclaim m-cap crownAt the end of March quarter, RIL had an outstanding debt of Rs 3,36,294 crore. |
| How to stop hunger from usurping Covid fightHow to stop hunger from usurping Covid fightThe govt has announced few steps, but quantum of aid & coverage of beneficiaries should be expanded. |
| Market Extra: What is the bitcoin halving and which day does it happen?One of the biggest events in the world of digital currencies is about to take place. |
| Health chief quits after coronavirus crisis at Colorado meatpacking plantEmails show how a top state health official faced competing interests as the COVID-19 pandemic hit al local meat plant. |
| The Tell: Why the stock market rally is actually signaling an ‘abnormal’ economic recovery, not a V-shaped coronavirus reboundThere’s a misperception about what the stock market is saying about the economic outlook, says Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer. |
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