01Apr2019 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Is Tanking This Morning, DOW Futures Down Over 930 Points, Gold Index Skyrocketing Over $1440, WTI Crude In The $82 Handle, US Dollar Slips To 84.16

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 1.04% while France’s CAC 40 is up 0.74% and London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.65%.

Aramco eclipses top earner Apple ahead of debut $10 billion-plus bond sale

Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil producer, made core earnings of $224 billion last year, almost three times as much as Apple, figures from the state-owned company showed on Monday ahead of its debut international bond issue.

Johnson & Johnson’s baby shampoo samples fail Indian quality test; company rejects findings

Johnson & Johnson’s baby shampoo samples failed quality tests conducted by the northwestern Indian state of Rajasthan, according to a public notice from the state’s drugs watchdog, findings that were rejected by the U.S. drugmaker.

EasyJet summer clouded by Brexit, economic weakness

Budget airline EasyJet warned on Monday that European travelers were holding off booking their summer holidays for fear of how the Brexit process will end, weakening demand for tickets and prices.

U.S. airlines hit by system-wide outages

U.S. airlines were hit by system-wide computer outages on Monday related to problems with the Aerodata planning weight and balance program, the Federal Aviation Administration said.

When it comes to disclosing sponsors, your Google Assistant may be mute

On stage at an investor conference last month, Google’s Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler identified a vexing challenge for the company’s most prized app: its virtual assistant.

U.S. says several airlines’ operations affected by non-FAA data program

Operations for Southwest Airlines Co, United Continental, JetBlue Airways Co, Alaska Air Group and Delta Air Lines Inc were impacted on Monday by data problems, the Federal Aviation Administration said in a statement.

Sweden will not investigate Swedbank over Browder complaint

Sweden’s Economic Crime Authority said it will not investigate Swedbank over a criminal complaint alleging money laundering brought by campaigning investor Bill Browder.

Shares surge on China’s factory rebound, trade optimism

Global stocks surged on Monday, extending gains from their best quarter since 2010, as strong Chinese factory activity data and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations gave investors reason to cheer.

Saudi ban on Boeing MAX flights to continue for near future: minister

Saudi Arabia has no immediate plans to allow Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to operate in the kingdom, its transport minister said on Monday, as state airline flyadeal potentially reconsiders an order for the jets.

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Tumble In February – Larry Kudlow Was Wrong

After January’s much-heralded rebounded from December’s “well it can’t be real” plunge, retail sales were expected to continue the rebound in February (albeit at a slower pace) but they did not – disappointing gravely.

Against expectations of a 0.2% rise, headline retail sales dropped 0.2% MoM in February (exaggerated by strong upward revisions) and core retail sales (ex-auto and gas) tumbled 0.6% MoM…

Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: Payrolls, PMIs, Trade And Brexit

As we start Q2, this week will contain a barrage of key events for markets.

As DB’s Craig Nicol writes in his weekly preview, politics will remain on the agenda, both with the latest trade talks between the US and China, as well as any further Brexit developments. Looking at upcoming data releases, PMIs at the start of the week are already setting the agenda, while March’s US jobs report will also be a highlight, along with the Eurozone’s CPI inflation reading. From central banks, there’ll be decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India, while we’ll also get the minutes from March’s ECB meeting.

Aside from the interminable Brexit fiasco, there are a number of critical data highlights this week. Monday’s manufacturing PMIs for March can be expected to set the agenda, with readings from the UK, Italy, South Korea, Indonesia, China, and Canada all coming out, along with final readings from Japan, the Eurozone, France, Germany and the US. On Wednesday, we’ll then get the services and composite PMIs from a number of countries as well, including China, Japan, Italy and the UK and the final readings for the Eurozone, France, Germany and the US.

The other main highlight will be Friday’s US jobs report. In February, nonfarm payrolls rose by just 20k, the smallest increase since September 2017, but the consensus expectation is that employment growth will bounce back in March to show a 175k increase. Another reading to watch will be average hourly earnings, which last month reached 3.4% yoy, the highest since April 2009.

Looking at other US data of note, Monday will see February’s retail sales figures, where consensus expectations are for a 0.3% mom increase, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which in February recorded its lowest reading since November 2016. We’ll also get durable goods orders on Tuesday, while on Wednesday the ADP Employment reading will be released.

The Fed Guarantees No Recession For 10 Years, Permanent Uptrend For Stocks & Housing

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Those who own stocks and housing now will continue getting richer, those who don’t will be priced out of these markets.

A classified Federal Reserve memo sheds new light on the Fed’s confidence in its control of the economy and the stock and housing markets. In effect, the Fed is guaranteeing that there will be no recession for another 10 years, and that stocks and housing will remain in a permanent uptrend.

Paraphrasing the memo, we have the tools to insure that stocks and housing do not just remain at a permanently high plateau but continue to move higher in a permanent uptrend.

I’ve marked up a chart of the S&P 500 and the Case-Shiller Housing Index to illustrate the Fed guarantee. As you can see, stocks and housing will at a minimum double in the 2019-2029 period, and could do much better.

The Fed memo refers to the enormous success of the Fed’s dovish about-face since December: (again, paraphrasing the memo): The Federal Reserve’s management of policies and market expectations since December prove that we can reverse any downturn and reignite expansion of stock and housing valuations at will. We can thus guarantee a permanent expansion of stock and housing valuations into the indefinite future.

The memo also notes that there are many policy extremes such as negative interest rate policy (NIRP) that the Fed holds in reserve. In other words, the toolbox is full of shiny new tools the Fed hasn’t even used yet. This is one reason for the memo’s supreme confidence: there is no slowdown or downturn that the Fed can’t reverse within a few weeks via policy tweaks and perception management via public pronouncements and PR campaigns.

…

Boeing’s Day Of Reckoning Has Arrived: Ethiopian Airlines Set To Release ‘Preliminary’ Investigation Report

Boeing’s day of reckoning has finally arrived.

Ethiopian Airlines is holding a media event Monday to share the preliminary findings of its investigation into what caused ET302 to plunge out of the sky and crash in a field outside Addis Ababa just minutes after takeoff, killing all 157 people on board. Leaked details from the investigation, and comments from the airline’s CEO, suggest that widely held suspicions appear to have been confirmed: Boeing’s MCAS anti-stall software, which was designed to stop the Boeing 737 MAX 8 from stalling during its post-takeoff ascent, had been accidentally triggered, forcing the plane’s nose to dip uncontrollably.

Since the March 10 crash, which triggered airlines and governments around the world to ground the planes pending the results of the investigation, details about what appear to be shortcuts taken by Boeing to win approval for the planes from the FAA have emerged. Boeing has been accused of “regulatory capture”, Boeing has submitted a revision of MCAS to the FAA, which is pending approval. The aerospace company had started redesigning the software after the Oct. 29 crash of a 737 owned by Indonesia’s Lion Air, which happened under similar circumstances to ET302, triggering speculation that they both might have been caused by MCAS. An investigation into the Lion Air crash appeared to show the software had malfunctioned.

Economic Report: Retail sales fall in February, but not all is lost: January sales turned out to be quite strong

Sales at U.S. retailers fell in February for the second time in three months, hurt in part by a severe cold spell across the country. The saving grace? Sales in January were much stronger than originally reported. Retail sales dropped 0.2% last month after a revised 0.7% gain in January.

Cryptos: Bitcoin ticks higher, nearing 2019 high

Bitcoin prices moved higher on Monday, edging the cryptocurrency towards crucial resistance at $4,200.

Need to Know: Forget upbeat Chinese sentiment, this is what’s ‘real’ for investors, says chief UBS economist

Our call of the day from UBS’s chief economist Paul Donovan, says investors want to take this latest China data with a grain of salt, as he says it’s not presenting a true underlying picture.